A new study suggests that token launch timing barely changes how the asset performs in the long run. The report by Haseeb Qureshi, a managing partner at crypto VC firm Dragonfly Capital, analyzed every token that had its listing announced by Binance, filtering out stablecoins, wrapped assets and other non-independent tokens.
The sample covers 202 tokens in total. When the tokens were split by launch environment — 101 tokens went to market in bull markets and 33 in bear markets — the performance gap all but disappeared.
Token launches per market cycle. Source: Dragonfly Capital
Also, Qureshi noted, regardless of the timing, most tokens don’t perform well over time. Bull-market launches recorded a median annualized return of about 1.3%, while bear-market launches came in at -1.3%.
Even when the data was sliced in different ways, the results stayed broadly the same. Qureshi emphasized that timing does not appear to matter, and shouldn’t be a primary consideration for founders:
“There is no statistically significant difference in performance between tokens launched in bull markets vs bear markets. There may be other considerations in when you choose to launch your token: cost, exchange fees, marketing expenses, etc. But if anything, those likely cut against launching in a bull market, as they tend to be higher in bulls vs bears.”
Less Competition in Bear Markets
Qureshi noted in an X post on Sunday, Feb. 15, presenting the research that this doesn’t settle every key question founders face. Bear markets may still offer cheaper talent and less competition for listings, while bull markets tend to boost demand for token sales.
Also, the data only captures tokens that made it to Binance — by far the largest centralized exchange by trading volume — meaning projects that died quietly elsewhere aren’t reflected in the report. Additionally, some market cycles include fewer tokens than others, and defining where one cycle ends and another begins is never exact, the study notes.
Nonetheless, Qureshi says it “it doesn’t matter that much when you launch,” pointing to Solana’s debut just days after the March 2020 market crash as a reminder that execution, not timing, tends to do the heavy lifting.
That said, survival itself appears to be the real hurdle. Of the roughly 24,000 tokens created since 2014, more than 14,000 are now defunct, according to a 2024 report from CoinGecko.
Even among those that do survive, meaningful revenue is rare. As The Defiant reported previously, a study by 5Money and Storible found that about 95% of nearly 5,000 crypto projects generate less than $1,000 a month, including the majority of projects valued at over $1 billion.
