When the halving occurs this weekend, it will be the most expensive ever. Bitcoin’s price has sextupled since the last halving and is up nearly 100X since the prior halving in 2016. The mining reward is widely anticipated to spike to all-time highs courtesy of the on-chain Runes launch as well as a new ‘Epic Sat’ worth at least seven figures USD.
On every metric imaginable, the event will be rich. Large parties are planned globally, warm-up destination parties charging more than $800 for a ticket have already sold out, and Bitcoiners are trading impromptu ‘futures’ for a payout from the first post-halving block. Social media personalities have already scheduled multiple, competing livestreams on YouTube and X.
Bitcoin’s halving occurs every four years and, as the name suggests, halves the coinbase reward of each new block appended to Bitcoin’s blockchain. On Saturday, the coinbase reward will halve from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoin per block in guaranteed miner income. The halving doesn’t alter optional transaction fees, which users always voluntarily add to transactions.
Whereas the halving is bad news for miner revenue, it’s good news for Bitcoin’s investor-oriented stock-to-flow. Stock-to-flow, a common financial metric for investors analyzing commodities like oil or gold, is the ratio of existing supply (stock) to incremental additions to supply (flow).
Read more: Halving excitement pumps ‘worthless’ bitcoin testnet
Bitcoin halving: Improved stock-to-flow plus numismatics
This particular halving event is the most expensive ever, not only because of bitcoin’s price or the cost of the upcoming celebrations but because it will simultaneously reward both the stock-to-flow metric and miners’ short-term revenue.
To explain, prior halvings have never had noteworthy financial speculation on numismatics. Numismatics is the additional value of currency above its face value — for example, a limited edition and mint condition silver dollar is worth more than one dollar because of its numismatics.
This year, however, Saturday’s post-halving block will have multi-million dollar bids from numismatic bidders.
This halving will reward the stock-to-flow metric and miners’ short-term revenue.
Over the past year, a group of Bitcoiners led by Casey Rodarmor have created a multi-billion dollar marketplace for rare and inscribed satoshis — the 1/100 millionth denomination of 1 bitcoin. This community, which uses Rodarmor’s Ordinal theory and associated software like Inscriptions, has created a robust bid for numismatic value.
So this year, unlike prior halving years, wealthy traders are willing to pay millions of dollars to buy individual satoshis immediately after the halving occurs. In particular, traders are willing to pay for Runes, Rodarmor’s new fungible token protocol, Runes-associated protocol mints, and the staggeringly valuable Epic Satoshi which already has speculators eyeing seven figures.
Let the celebrations begin
Numismatics are bringing collectors and speculators to this weekend’s halving party. Unlike any prior time in Bitcoin’s history, they have more money than ever to spend.
This year is an especially rich halving for Bitcoin and not only because the difficulty adjustment and coinbase reward will alter simultaneously. It’s also the most expensive, public, and important halving — and it has landed on a perfect day: Saturday, 04/20/24.
Collectors of Ordinals, Runes, BRC-20, and rare satoshis are joining a Bitcoin community this year that is richer than ever. Tens of millions of new people have bought bitcoin since the last halving, and the price is already up 6X. This halving will be the most expensive ever, by far, across every category — and Bitcoiners have plenty of money to celebrate this moment.
