As bitcoin hovers just above $84,000 at 8:45 p.m. Eastern Time (ET) on Wednesday amid heightened volatility, ten critical events—from U.S. tariffs to central bank decisions—could shape crypto markets in the weeks ahead.
From Trump’s Tariffs to Fed Rates: Key Factors Driving Bitcoin’s Next Move
Bitcoin’s price teeters above $84,000 as global economic tremors—from Trump’s tariffs to looming Fed rate decisions—threaten to destabilize crypto markets. With institutional giants like Blackrock shedding holdings, inflation data poised to shift policy, and G20 leaders debating financial frameworks, investors face a tangled web of risks and possible benefits. Here are ten pivotal factors, spanning geopolitics to macroeconomic shifts, that could dictate bitcoin’s path in an increasingly volatile landscape.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (March 18–19):
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting is pivotal for bitcoin, as potential rate adjustments could sway the U.S. dollar’s strength and risk-asset demand. Higher rates may tighten liquidity, pressuring crypto prices, while dovish signals could reignite bullish sentiment. Presently, CME Futures are betting there will be no rate change.
U.S. Consumer Price Index (March 12):
March’s inflation data will influence Fed policy. A hotter-than-expected CPI could fuel bets on rate hikes, dampening crypto’s appeal as a risk-on asset. Conversely, cooling inflation might bolster bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge depending on how the market perceives things.
Trump’s Tariffs on Imports:
President Trump’s proposed tariffs have rattled markets, contributing to bitcoin’s drop below $84,000. Fears of trade wars have driven investors toward traditional safe havens like gold, diverging from crypto’s recent sell-off. Gold on Wednesday Feb. 26, 2025, is down a hair this week and trading for $2,916 per ounce.
G20 Finance Ministers Meeting (Feb 26–27):
Outcomes from this summit could reshape global economic cooperation, with implications for crypto regulations and cross-border capital flows. Stricter international policy coordination may heighten compliance risks for digital assets. While U.S. economic policy seems a little less strict, this may not be the case on the global front.
ETF Selling Pressure:
Major issuers like Fidelity and Blackrock are offloading bitcoin, exacerbating downward pressure. Over $1 billion flowed out of the funds earlier this week. Sustained ETF outflows could signal weakening institutional confidence, though a reversal might stabilize prices.
Potential Spot Altcoin ETF Approvals:
The Trump administration’s SEC is reviewing applications for spot ETFs tied to XRP, litecoin (LTC), hedera (HBAR), solana (SOL), and dogecoin (DOGE). Approval could inject institutional capital into altcoins, lifting the broader crypto market, while rejections might trigger sell-offs.
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report (March 7):
Strong U.S. job growth might reinforce Fed hawkishness, while weak data could revive recession fears—both scenarios likely to spur crypto volatility as traders recalibrate risk exposure.
Altcoin Market Contraction:
Altcoin dominance has fallen to 42.1%, its lowest since November 2024. As capital consolidates in bitcoin (BTC), weaker altcoins could drag overall market sentiment lower. Other dynamics are coming to play next month as well like Solana’s massive token unlock.
U.S. Treasury and Trade Dynamics:
Broader reactions to tariffs and protectionist policies may disrupt global supply chains, influencing corporate risk strategies and demand for crypto as a decentralized alternative. Alternatively, rising U.S. Treasury yields are creating headwinds for risk assets like bitcoin. As yields climb, investors are drawn to safer, income-generating bonds, reducing demand for crypto investments. Recent yield spikes, driven by inflation concerns and Fed policy expectations, have pressured bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin Dominance and Volatility:
With bitcoin’s dominance at 59.69%, its price swings remain a bellwether for crypto. A retest of $80,000, as analysts warn, could trigger significant panic selling—or bargain hunting.
Bitcoin’s path hinges on macroeconomic crosscurrents, from Washington to Frankfurt. While tariffs and central bank decisions pose near-term risks, evolving regulatory and institutional landscapes will define crypto’s resilience. Investors should monitor these ten factors to navigate the volatility ahead.
