Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action in early 2025 has left investors uncertain, with February marked by a month-long consolidation. The market, which initially expected an aggressive breakout at the start of the year, is now weighing the possibility of an impending bear phase.
However, long-term technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price cycles suggests that BTC remains on track to reach a new all-time high of $200,000, as observed by TradingShot in his recent analysis on TradingView.
Despite short-term weakness, historical cycle patterns indicate that BTC’s broader trajectory remains bullish.
Bitcoin’s market cycle points to further upside
A closer look at Bitcoin’s historical price patterns reveals that each bull cycle follows a structured parabolic trajectory, albeit with diminishing volatility as the asset matures.
The Mayer Multiple (MM) trend, a key technical indicator measuring price deviations from historical norms, shows that BTC has recently dipped below the MM 1 Standard Deviation (1SD) above—a level that, in past cycles, was maintained for longer before significant trend reversals.
Despite this short-term weakness, a broader analysis of Bitcoin’s parabolic growth trajectory indicates that BTC’s cycles are becoming less aggressive over time.
The first few cycles saw BTC exceed MM 3SD above, whereas the 2021 bull run only reached MM 2SD above. This indicates a more tempered but still substantial upside trajectory for the current cycle.
Bitcoin’s bull cycle timing and potential price target
Bitcoin’s historical cycles have consistently spanned 1,064 days (152 weeks) from the bear market bottom to the peak, suggesting a potential cycle top around October 6, 2025. While BTC may not reach the MM 2SD above as in previous cycles due to diminishing volatility, its current trajectory still points toward a possible $200,000 price target by year-end.
Adding to this optimism, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory despite recent market uncertainty.
Institutional demand also appears to be waning, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $540 million in net outflows last week, adding to concerns over weakening investor interest.
Despite these short-term headwinds, analysts remain optimistic, pointing to historical cycles that support a potential rally toward new highs.
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