Key Points:
- Nate Geraci predicts the spot Ethereum ETF launch could be the week of July 15, with filings on July 8 and 12.
- Eric Balchunas now expects SEC approval the week of July 8, citing regulatory amendments and minimal pre-Independence Day activity.
- Analysts anticipate Ethereum ETFs to outperform Bitcoin post-launch, with Bitcoin facing pressure from Mt. Gox.
Predicted Spot Ethereum ETF Launch Date
According to Geraci, Bloomberg forecasts the revised S-1 filing on July 8, with the final submission expected on July 12, potentially leading to a spot Ethereum ETF launch in the week of July 15.
However, industry experts remain skeptical about the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval. Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, had initially predicted a green light before July 4 but revised his outlook after hearing that the SEC had requested amendments from prospective issuers. Balchunas now believes that the week of July 8 is more likely for any regulatory movement, citing minimal activity ahead of Independence Day.
Market Expectations for Ethereum and Bitcoin Post-ETF Launch
The delay represents a setback for the industry, which had hoped the introduction of spot Ethereum ETFs would invigorate the sluggish market, akin to the impact spot Bitcoin ETFs had earlier this year. Analysts from K33 Research, Vetle Lunde, and David Zimmerman, suggest that spot Ethereum ETFs might outperform Bitcoin in the weeks following their launch.
Their report indicates that these ETFs, expected as early as July 8, could significantly boost Ether’s price, whereas Bitcoin could face selling pressure as $850 million in funds are returned to creditors of the defunct exchange Mt. Gox starting this week.
Despite Ethereum’s underperformance compared to Bitcoin over the past year, Bitcoin’s market-leading growth has been fueled by over $14 billion flowing into Bitcoin exchange-traded products. The anticipated spot Ethereum ETF launch could mark a significant shift in market dynamics.
