This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.
A curious filing landed on the SEC’s database Friday.
Volatility Shares filed for a Solana futures ETF, which would issue securities that track the price movements of underlying SOL futures contracts trading on a CFTC-registered exchange. There’s a catch though: No such SOL futures contracts exist. ETF analysts nevertheless said the filing bodes well for spot Solana ETFs’ chances of being approved sometime in 2025.
“Many believe that with Paul Atkins as SEC chair, a wider range of products will be possible. This filing appears to be a bet on that,” Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said in a direct message.
Volatility Shares is a leveraged ETF specialist based in Palm Beach Gardens, FL. The smallish firm has arguably still helped shift the overton window for regulators: Grayscale argued in 2023 that Volatility Shares’ leveraged bitcoin futures ETF was riskier than Grayscale’s proposed spot bitcoin ETF, so Grayscale’s product should be approved.
Now, Volatility Shares is offering another nonconsensus product in a Solana ETF space that is currently built on making bets. Its Solana futures ETF would give some investors exposure to 2x or the inverse of the daily price change of SOL futures. SOL futures contracts don’t currently trade (bitcoin and ether both have futures trading on the CME), but Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas said the filing is probably a good sign that SOL futures are “on the way.”
Regulators could be more likely to approve spot ETFs if they see “a healthy market that’s liquid enough for SOL to trade,” Sol Strategies CEO Leah Wald said, noting that bitcoin and ether ETFs were only approved by the SEC after CME futures began trading.
Conventional wisdom used to hold that futures were a needed prerequisite for crypto ETFs, but that math seemingly changed with the possibility that a Trump electoral victory would end Gary Gensler’s tenure as SEC chair. At least five firms have already filed for spot SOL ETFs over the past six months despite the lack of futures.
Still, a futures market likely wouldn’t hurt the spot SOL ETFs’ approval odds.
“Alright, I’ve seen enough…Registering formal prediction,” Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, wrote on X. “Spot solana ETFs will be approved in 2025.”
