Recent US regulatory action seeking to restrict prediction markets hasn’t slowed activity in the first weeks of 2026, with trading volumes hitting a record $701.7 million on Monday.
Prediction market Kalshi accounted for two-thirds of total trading volume at $465.9 million, while competitors Polymarket and Opinion tallied $100 million worth of trades, Dune Analytics data from Gate Research shows.
The $701.7 million tally beat the previous record of $666.6 million set the day before, with Kalshi leading trading volumes by a similar margin.
Daily trading volume on prediction markets since September 2024. Source: Dune Analytics
Prediction markets have become one of crypto’s hottest use cases, with adoption accelerating exponentially since August.
Several crypto exchanges, including Coinbase and Gemini, have, or are planning to, integrate prediction markets, while self-custody wallets like MetaMask have made similar moves.
The integrations and rising trading volumes have attracted interest from Wall Street, with market leaders Polymarket and Kalshi now boasting multibillion-dollar valuations.
Prediction markets back under the microscope
Prediction markets went back under regulatory spotlight earlier this month when an anonymous Polymarket user bet roughly $30,000 that Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro would be ousted as president just a few hours before he was captured — a bet that paid them out more than $400,000 and sparked concerns about insider knowledge.
New York lawmakers are also set to review legislation seeking to ban certain markets tied to politics, sports, the stock market, and others.
Connecticut, New York, Nevada, and New Jersey are among the other US states that have attempted to place restrictions on prediction market operators — prompting retaliatory legal action.
A Tennessee federal judge temporarily stopped state regulators from taking action against Kalshi on Monday, which had sued the state after being ordered to cease offering sports event contracts.
Earlier this week, news broke that Ukraine blocked access to Polymarket in December, classifying prediction markets as gambling.
