Meme tokens can hint at their reliability based on a metric of larger retail wallets. The presence of holders with more than $1,000 in assets signals the formation of a community, with more potential for long-term holding.
Meme tokens vary in their prevalence of holders. Some assets are weighed down by insider holdings. Others are spread to many wallets, which only hold insignificant amounts.
A metric of wallets with a balance of more than $1,000 was a notable indicator of a token’s cult status. Among all meme assets, Pepe (PEPE) had the biggest prevalence of this type of mid-range retail wallet. The token also has a relatively long history, in addition to the meme’s Internet presence.
Murad Mahmudov, who separates tokens into groups – for trading and for holding, noted Pepe (PEPE) was the leader, followed by DogWifHat (WIF) and SPX6900 (SPX).
Holders with $1K+ can be a useful metric to determine conviction of a Memecoin community
Bigger number = MORE MOTIVATED SOLDIERS with skin in the game
Comparing some of the popular Memes: pic.twitter.com/Qi4UEXC4Yj
— Murad 💹🧲 (@MustStopMurad) December 15, 2024
Meme tokens gained influence and mindshare quickly in 2024, and analysts aimed to gauge which tokens were more reliable. PEPE has been much more widely distributed since its launch, surpassing even very vocal communities with a culture of holding for the long term.
PEPE aims to hold onto a higher price range
In the past few days, PEPE showed signs of losing holders, while usually, the token onboarded dozens of new holders each day. One of the reasons may be the presence of small, but connected wallets, which were then sold off to create panic.
At the same time, a notable whale wallet took more PEPE off Binance and stored it along with APU tokens. Despite claims that PEPE is widely distributed, there are signs of wallet clusters. The recent whale buyer is part of a cluster holding 2.62% of the PEPE supply.
Pepe (PEPE) is widely distributed, but there are still clusters of connected wallets, linked by smart contracts. | Source: Bubblemaps
Other whales have shown readiness to hold, as in the case of the address ranked #32 based on its holdings. The whale’s wallet is not connected to any clusters or smart contracts.
For now, Wintermute has decreased its holdings of PEPE down to 242B tokens valued at $6.8M. Wintermute is one of the most active meme market makers, but it has a different selection of assets compared to the influencer list of memes. Wintermute focuses on POPCAT, CAT, and BONK, and has recently added CHILLGUY, MOODENG, PONKE, and GOAT.
PEPE recently traded near an all-time high of $0.000027, later sinking to $0.000023. Recently, the asset broke above a valuation of $10B, becoming the third-largest meme token by market capitalization.
Despite the active growth of memes, only 10 assets have broken above a market capitalization of $1B, while a market cap of around $500M is seen as a grey zone, where tokens can either make it or fail.
Currently, some of the top memes selected by Murad Mahmudov are still in the $500M range, awaiting more listings and an eventual breakout. The top influencer warned meme tokens are at risk of rotation, but holders may outperform by picking the right cult tokens.
Meme tokens lose narrative ground
Meme tokens are currently losing mindshare, as investors and social media shift to DeFi. Stars like Moodeng (MOODENG) are coming down after a series of high-profile listings, while also revealing part of their gains were due to connected wallets and market manipulation.
One of the reasons is that the attention is shifting to new types of meme tokens, namely those tied to AI agents.
Another day, another ATH for AI mindshare.
51% for all narratives. pic.twitter.com/UQiRevhqvC
— Kaito AI 🌊 (@_kaitoai) December 16, 2024
AI meme tokens already expanded to $4.3B in market capitalization, though still a small share of the overall meme market. Recently, Messari pointed out GOAT could become the meme of 2024, while another AI-related token, FARTCOIN, still trades at $0.77, near peak valuation.
The meme space as a whole decreased its total market capitalization to under $120B. Most tokens remain flat and trade sideways. The big exceptions include SPX, GIGA, and AI16Z, boosted by their cult status and interest in AI memes.
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