Market dynamics continue to paint a bullish picture for bitcoin even as Iran-related developments and DeFi hacks dominate headlines.
U.S.-listed spot ETFs pulled in $663 million on Friday, the most since Jan. 15. Total inflows reached $996 million last week, up from $786 million the week prior, according to data source SoSoValue. This points to strong institutional interest in the largest cryptocurrency.
For a meaningful price rally to emerge, it’s a trend that needs to be sustained.
“ETF flow regimes provide a secondary read: Sustained inflows signal structural demand, while intermittent flows indicate tactical positioning, with consistency mattering more than magnitude,” said Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, in an email.
Bitcoin is trading just above $75,000 after hitting highs above $78,000 on Friday, according to CoinDesk data. The prices has largely held steady over the past 24 hours. Similar patterns are evident in ether (ETH), $XRP ($XRP), Solana ($SOL) and other major tokens.
DeFi platform Aave’s AAVE token has dropped 1% to $90 as the protocol faces collateral damage from the weekend hack of KelpDAO. The DeFi dominance rate, which measures the share of DeFi coins in the total crypto market value, has held flat at around 3%.
“The pressure on the leading cryptocurrency is linked to negative reactions in stock markets to news about Iran, which has reduced risk appetite. BTC has lagged significantly behind equities in recent days, building potential but not yet moving to realize it,” Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email.
According to the latest reports, the U.S. attacked and seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to bypass restrictions on Iran’s ports.
Meanwhile, traders are actively building short positions, betting against a breakout. This could fuel a “short squeeze” if prices hold steady, forcing traders to cover bearish bets and potentially pushing spot prices higher. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What’s trending
- The $292 million Kelp exploit: how it happened, and what it means for DeFi (CoinDesk): Aave saw about a $6.6 billion drop in total value locked on the protocol as users yanked assets following the incident, raising “bank run” concerns. The token linked with the protocol fell about 15%.
- Hack at Vercel sends crypto developers scrambling to lock down API keys (CoinDesk): The incident is drawing scrutiny because Vercel underpins front-end infrastructure for many crypto apps and is the primary steward of Next.js, one of the most widely used web development frameworks.
- Hormuz traffic at standstill as U.S. vessel seizure widens risk (Bloomberg): Commercial traffic through the strait is at a virtual standstill after a brief reopening over the weekend ended with the first U.S. seizure of an Iranian vessel. A fragile truce is due to expire at the end of Tuesday.
- Stocks are back at records, but bond investors haven’t joined the party (The Wall Street Journal): While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite indexes are at all-time highs, worries about lasting damage to Middle East energy infrastructure have kept longer-dated oil futures well above their prewar levels.
Today’s signal
The chart shows weekly price swings in solana ($SOL), with each candle showing a full week of trading activity, including the opening, closing, high and low prices.
One level stands out: $95.16, the low registered in April.
$SOL has remained below that level for 11 consecutive weeks after dropping below it in early February. In technical analysis, a level that previously acted as “support,” a price floor where buying interest tends to emerge, often becomes “resistance” once it is broken. That means traders who previously bought around that level may now look to sell if prices revisit it, limiting upside momentum.
The fact that $SOL has not yet climbed back points to a sustained bearish sentiment and potential for deeper losses. The next major support is seen directly at $50.
A strong move above that level, backed by a surge in trading volumes, is needed to invalidate the bearish outlook.
