Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO Mark Yusko has explained the logic behind his daring $150,000 price prediction for Bitcoin.
Yusko made his latest remarks in a recent interview on CNBC, during which the industry pundit was asked to clarify the mathematics behind his expectation of $150K by 2025 for Bitcoin.
The Maths Behind BTC $150K Outlook
Yusko revealed that the figure is grounded in the fair value suggestion based on Metcalfe’s law model. He highlighted that Bitcoin’s fair value is approximately $50,000, while the impending halving is about three weeks away.
Explaining further, he noted that the halving event reduces block rewards, representing the amount of money given to miners for securing the Bitcoin network. According to Yusko, many miners face challenges when these rewards are halved. He noted that it historically leads to a rise in the price of Bitcoin and its fair value.
Meanwhile, the expert pointed out that this cycle is somewhat different due to the emergence of transaction fees alongside block rewards attributed to Ordinals and Inscriptions.
Based on this premise, Yusko envisioned a scenario where Bitcoin’s fair value reaches only $75,000 in this cycle. He explained the factors that would influence this $75K fair value. Among them was the view that there would be significant interest in Bitcoin following the halving, with many people experiencing FOMO.
Yusko highlighted that Bitcoin has historically reached about twice its fair value in each cycle. He cited the 2021 cycle when BTC’s fair value was estimated at $30,000, but the asset peaked at around $69,000.
As a result, he expressed his belief that a two-times fair value scenario would unfold, making the $150,000 prediction realistic.
Other prominent entities in the crypto space, such as Standard Chartered, Tom Lee, and Robert Kiyosaki, also believe that a $150K BTC is feasible this cycle.
Bitcoin To Peak 9 Months After Halving
Meanwhile, the CNBC correspondent inquired about the path to $150,000, referencing Yusko’s previous prediction of a blowoff top in 2024 and questioning whether this event is still anticipated before reaching $150K.
Yusko clarified that the significant movement typically occurs post-halving. He explained that following the halving, demand would surge due to ETFs and other interested parties, while BTC’s supply of new coins already decreased from 900 a day to 450 BTC.
As a result, he stressed that the price has to rise with more demand than supply. The expert expects the ascent to become more exponential or parabolic towards the end of the year.
Yusko noted that historically, Bitcoin’s peak occurs approximately nine months after the halving, towards the end of the year, before the onset of the next bear market.
