A remarkable prediction by Hal Finney, one of the most prominent early Bitcoin pioneers, has resurfaced after 16 years.
Bitcoin historian Pete Rizzo reignited interest in the iconic prediction in a recent tweet. Sixteen years ago, Hal Finney had forecast a future Bitcoin price of $10 million when the cryptocurrency was still valued at $0.
✨ Hal Finney predicting $10 million #Bitcoin when the price was $0, exactly 16 years ago
Absolutely LEGENDARY 💫 pic.twitter.com/0rrm6LDGvs
— The Bitcoin Historian (@pete_rizzo_) January 10, 2025
Finney’s prediction dates back to Jan. 10, 2009, a day after Satoshi Nakamoto released version 0.1 of the Bitcoin software and seven days after Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator mined the genesis block known as block 0.
Hal Finney, a computer scientist, is well known for receiving the first Bitcoin transaction and tweeting about Bitcoin on Jan. 11, 2009.
Finney is considered to be the leading Satoshi contender, even though he denied it until his passing in 2014. Satoshi Nakamoto’s true identity remains unknown till now.
Finney’s $10 million Bitcoin prediction
Rizzo posted a screenshot of one of Finney’s emails dated Jan. 10, 2009, that discussed how to value Bitcoin: “One immediate problem with any new currency is how to value it. Even ignoring the practical problem that virtually no one will accept it at first.”
Finney predicted that if Bitcoin became the world’s dominant payment system, its value “should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world.” Extending this logic, he arrived at $10 million per Bitcoin.
Finney stated: “As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.”
At a current price of $93,726, Bitcoin is far from Finney’s $10 million target, but the prediction continues to inspire long-term faith in the cryptocurrency.
