The total non-sports volume across two of the largest prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, crossed the $4 billion mark for the first time, closing at $4.4 billion last week. Kalshi accounted for nearly 86% of that volume, notching up a new non-sports weekly high of $3.8 billion. What makes this figure really shine through is the fact that this is happening in the middle of a World Cup that has been driving record sports volume onto both platforms since June 11.
Source: Artemis
Since the start of the year, weekly non-sports numbers were ranging from $1 billion to around $2 billion without any sort of significant spike in the middle. At the time of writing, this number has nearly doubled. This is happening at a time when the biggest sports tournament of the year was busy setting separate records on the sports side of the same platforms.
The World Cup Is Filling Books It Never Touches
The World Cup has certainly been the primary reason for why trading volumes across the entire prediction market space have ballooned over the past month. The tournament is bringing in millions of new users onto Kalshi and Polymarket and while their initial trades might likely be sports contracts, a chunk of them aren’t leaving once they’ve funded their accounts. The World Cup markets seem to serve as the entry point, introducing new users to prediction markets before they branch out into politics, macro, and other markets.
This is the type of funnel and user acquisition prediction markets have been wanting for years. Sports draws the crowd, and the crowd finds everything else on offer. Whether it sticks is a separate question.
Kalshi’s Spike Lines Up Exactly With the Tournament
Kalshi’s weekly trading volume growth within the non-sports categories lines up almost perfectly since the World Cup kicked off. Its user base skews toward American traders who found the platform through a mobile product built to feel like a sportsbook. The regulated wrapper is part of the pull. It gives an average retail trader a reason to trust the app with money beyond a one-off bet on a game.
The past week saw Polymarket draw in $572.9 million in weekly non-sports volume, which is considerably smaller than its rival. That said, total trading volume on the platform is still hovering near the platform’s all-time highs and sports volumes have hit a new high of $2.51 billion this past week. Polymarket’s user base is a lot more international than Kalshi’s and that crowd came for the World Cup itself, not the US-centric markets that fill Kalshi’s non-sports column.
The Real Test Comes When the Matches Stop
The World Cup ends July 19. That’s the date from which we need to keep close tabs on the non-sports category, not this week’s $4.4 billion. The records only mean something if the non-sports volume holds after the sports catalyst disappears. If the figure slides back toward the old $2 billion plateau in August, the tournament will have rented these traders for a summer. If it holds anywhere near current levels, prediction markets will have pulled off something harder: turning event tourists into a base that trades whether or not there’s a game on.
That’s the bet both platforms are making right now. The World Cup handed them the largest audience they’ve ever had. The next month decides how much of it was worth keeping.
