Is ETH Still Special?

We are never shy about holding ETH to account as crypto’s second largest asset and the DeFi intuition gateway for traditional investors. But mainstream adoption requires a growth story, and so far this year ETH is (put kindly) failing to lead.

ETH sits in 16th place in the CoinDesk 20 YTD performance leaderboard, down 53%. Going back a year, the numbers look similar: 15th place and down 50%. Its market cap has dwindled so much relative to XRP that both are expected to be capped in the upcoming CoinDesk 20 reconstitution, a first.

ETH’s woes are news to few in the industry, but for us as index and product builders for “5%-ers,” it begs the question: is ETH still special? A distinguished provenance can only take you so far. ETH continues to dominate its on-chain categories (even before adding in L2s) and is arguably the second best brand name in crypto. There are even thoughtful ideas about ETH’s end-state as an essential supporting component of our blockchain future; we hear expressions like, “Ethereum will be the clearinghouse of DeFi.”

But mainstream adoption requires a growth story.

We have observed over the last few weeks that bitcoin has shown impressive resilience to fragile global markets. This past week was no exception, and as we pointed out last week, expectations for higher inflation – now echoed by Fed Chair Powell – could help support movement into bitcoin.

But the crypto market’s dependency on bitcoin to lead prices higher is one we hope the digital asset class outgrows. ETH can reassert a leadership position, as it briefly did in the weeks following the U.S. election. If not, CoinDesk 20 investors have exposure to much of ETH’s competition.