Bitcoin has lost 80% of the exponential energy of each successful bull market cycle, there have been four major ones till date. Peter Brandt with over forty years of trading experience says that Bitcoin has likely
Bitcoin has reached the cycle high for this bull run
Peter Brandt has identified Exponential Decay in Bitcoin cycles. The legendary trader says he doesn’t like the decay occurring in Bitcoin since it is one of his largest personal investment positions. Brandt identified four major bull cycles in the asset with the ongoing current fifth major one.
- Dec 21, 2009 to Jun 6, 2011 [3,191X advance]
- Nov 14, 2011 to Nov 25, 2013 [572X advance]
- Aug 17, 2015 to Dec 18, 2017 [ 122X advance]
- Dec 10, 2018 to Nov 8, 2021 [ 22X advance]
- Nov 21, 2022 to xxx x,, yyyy [high so far is $73,835 registered on Mar 14, 2024]
In his blog Brandt explains that applying the above formula forward, the fifth bull run will likely push Bitcoin price approximately 4.5 times higher. This means 80% higher than the 22X advance made between 2018-2021.
Brandt considers $15,473 as the cycle low and $72,723 as the top, however the latter has already been reached. Bitcoin halving is a catalyst that drives gains every cycle, this may occur this time as well. Bitcoin may rally in the coming months, however Brandt says that there is a 25% chance that BTC has “already topped for this cycle.”
If Bitcoin has topped, a pullback to mid-$30,000 or the 2021 lows is likely.
Is Exponential Decay the end of Bitcoin price gains?
Brandt argues that the decay in Bitcoin price could be the most bullish thing for the asset in the long-term perspective. The trader says that Gold presented a similar chart structure, between August 2020 and March 2024.
Gold chart 2020 to 2024 shows exponential decay
Brandt’s thesis therefore suggests that the decay may be beneficial to Bitcoin price, as seen in the chart below.
BTC/USDT 3-day chart
Bitcoin price is $63,974 at the time of writing.
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