Although Bitcoin ($BTC) price rebounded on July 9 amid an erosion of the TACO (Trump always chickens out) trade’s edge, the risk of a Bitcoin price crash remains palpable within the crypto community.
Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin price has been trapped in horizontal consolidation around $62,750 amid a tug-of-war between spot investors and derivatives traders. As such, Bitcoin price remains in a multi-month bear market, with lower lows and lower highs already confirmed year-to-date (YTD).
The recent $BTC price rebound from a crucial support level around $60,000, as Finbold explained, has been fueled by increased demand for its futures market. Notably, $BTC’s futures demand has rebounded from around -295,000 $BTC to slightly positive territory, per data from CryptoQuant.
With spot demand still weak over the past 30 days, the recent $BTC price rebound could be seen as a dead-cat bounce.
Is Bitcoin price crash over?
The debate over whether the Bitcoin price crash has ended has continued amid the mixed cash flows from the United States spot $BTC ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). Long-term holders, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), have averaged about $280 million per day in $BTC sales over the past few days, the highest since December 2022, according to data from Glassnode.
With $BTC price having traded below both the active investor cost basis and the recent buyer breakeven level for about five months, Glassnode’s analyst concluded that it may drop to the Realized Price of $53,000, driven by low demand from Bitcoin whales.
However, if the U.S. Clarity Act passes in July, as rising Bitcoin whales accumulate $BTC, the flagship coin could rally towards the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis of $72,200, thus invalidating a potential $BTC price crash.
