Amid the ongoing bearish market, the Bitcoin short-term holder profitability is facing a key test once again.
Bitcoin’s short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) is hovering around the breakeven level of 1.0, according to the latest data from Glassnode. Historically, this threshold has acted as a momentum confirmation point. Specifically, a successful break above 1.0 signals renewed bullish strength, while failure often leads to renewed selling pressure.
The last time Bitcoin’s STH-SOPR broke above 1.0 was in early January. However, the subsequent Bitcoin rally was short-lived, indicating weak conviction among short-term holders. Now, with the metric testing this level again, all eyes are on whether BTC can sustain a move higher.
At press time, Bitcoin is hovering at $95,500, down 1% over the past day. At this price, its 30-day performance shows a significant 9% decline.
Assessing Bitcoin Probability for a Breakout
To gauge the likelihood of a successful reclaim of the 1.0 level, Glassnode analysts turn to the short-term holders’ SOPR Multiple. This metric compares Bitcoin’s short-term profitability trends.
Currently, the multiple is in the red zone, suggesting that short-term holders have been realizing more losses recently. This adds downside risk, as holders facing losses are more likely to sell, increasing supply pressure in the market.
Furthermore, Glassnode emphasized that with the STH-SOPR Multiple showing negative momentum and the STH-SOPR struggling at breakeven, the probability of rejection at 1.0 appears elevated.
Bitcoin STH-SOPR Multiple in the red zone
Essentially, if BTC fails to break through, it could trigger another wave of sell pressure, reinforcing the short-term bearish outlook. On the other hand, a successful reclaim would signal a shift in profitability and the potential for bullish continuation. For now, Bitcoin remains at a critical decision point.
Bitcoin Remains Bullish Regardless of Short-Term Market Direction
In a separate commentary, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju reassured that Bitcoin’s bull market remains intact despite potential threats of major dips. He highlighted key “realized price” levels for different Bitcoin holders, such as ETFs at $89K, Binance traders at $59K, and miners at $57K.
Historically, falling below the miners’ $57K level has signaled the start of bear markets. Meanwhile, with Bitcoin trading above $95K, a drop to $57K is unlikely, with formidable support above this region. Accordingly, Young Ju reassured that a 30% dip in Bitcoin price should not be a major concern.
