Bitcoin may be entering the later stages of the ongoing bear market and forming a long-term market bottom.
Specifically, the recent drop to around $57,000 this month could become this cycle’s equivalent of the $16,000–$18,000 low seen in late 2022. While on-chain data suggests the bottoming process is progressing, key confirmation signals have yet to appear.
Why $58K Could Mark This Cycle’s Bottom
Market watcher Seth has said there are growing signs that Bitcoin’s high-timeframe (HTF) macro bottom is already in place. “There are signs that the HTF macro bottom is in. $58K is the new $18K,” he wrote on X.
Seth noted that he correctly identified Bitcoin’s $16,000 bottom during the 2022 bear market. He said he would not be surprised if Bitcoin had once again established its cycle low.
After bottoming in 2022, Bitcoin climbed steadily. It reached about $73,650 in March 2024 before rallying to an all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025.
Bitcoin Rebounds From July Low
Notably, Bitcoin fell to $57,747 on July 1, its lowest level yet in this cycle. It then rebounded to around $64,600 by July 5.
As of today, Bitcoin trades at $63,872, up about 4% over the past week. However, it remains down 27% year-to-date and is still about 49.4% below its October 2025 record high. That suggests the recovery is still incomplete.
Glassnode: Bottom Is Forming, but Confirmation Is Still Lacking
In a recent study, Glassnode said Bitcoin is still in “deep value” territory after trading below both the True Market Mean and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis for nearly five months.
The analytics firm said long-term holder (LTH) selling has intensified. Losses now account for 43% of total realized value, with realized losses reaching about $280 million per day, the highest level since December 2022.
Glassnode’s chart also shows that more than 5.5 million BTC held by long-term investors is currently at a loss. Similar levels were seen near major market bottoms in previous bear markets, before Bitcoin started recovering.
However, demand remains weak. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are still seeing net outflows, while daily trading volume of $650 million to $950 million is about 80% below the October 2025 peak.
At the same time, derivatives markets have become slightly more optimistic. The put/call ratio has fallen to its lowest level of 2026, although options traders are still pricing in downside risk.
In sum, Glassnode said Bitcoin may be in the final stages of forming a market bottom. However, it added that long-term holder selling needs to ease before a lasting recovery can be confirmed.
