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Home»Bitcoin»Is a Breakout to $105K on the Horizon or a Collapse Below $90K Looming?
Bitcoin

Is a Breakout to $105K on the Horizon or a Collapse Below $90K Looming?

NBTCBy NBTC19/03/2025No Comments4 Mins Read
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Bitcoin traded at $97,705 with a market cap of $1.93 trillion and a lower than usual 24-hour trade volume of $15.54 billion, experiencing a quiet session on Saturday, Feb. 15, 2025, within an intraday price range of $97,089 to $97,965.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s daily chart analysis reveals that BTC has been consolidating after a sharp correction, with key support at $89,164 and resistance at the $109,356 peak on Bitstamp. A break above the $100,000 level could indicate a bullish continuation, while rejection could lead to further downside. Fibonacci retracement levels based on the recent swing high of $109,356 and swing low of $89,164 highlight critical points, with the 23.6% retracement at $93,929, 38.2% at $96,877, 50.0% at $99,260, 61.8% at $101,643, and 78.6% at $105,035. A decisive move beyond $101,643 could propel BTC toward higher resistance zones, while failure to hold above $99,260 may trigger a decline toward $96,877 or lower.

BTC/USD Daily chart via Bitstamp on Feb. 15, 2025.

BTC’s four-hour chart shows a slowing downtrend on Saturday, with support at $94,091 and resistance at $102,569. A higher low has formed, signaling a possible bullish reversal if bitcoin can maintain momentum above $99,000. Conversely, a rejection near the $100,000 mark could result in renewed selling pressure. Bitcoin’s four-hour Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high to swing low indicate that the 50.0% retracement at $98,330 and 61.8% at $99,751 are critical resistance points. If BTC breaks above these, a move toward $102,000 could be likely, whereas a failure to sustain buying pressure may lead to a retest of $94,091.

BTC/USD 4H chart via Bitstamp on Feb. 15, 2025.

The leading crypto asset’s one-hour chart currently reflects a short-term bounce from $95,249, with resistance at $98,871. Volume has been declining, suggesting price stagnation, and a break above $99,000 with strong buying interest could lead to a move higher. However, lower highs forming below $98,500 may indicate weakening momentum. Presently, the one-hour chart’s Fibonacci retracement levels highlight the 50.0% retracement at $97,060 and 61.8% at $97,750 as key areas to watch, with a break above potentially signaling bullish continuation, while failure could result in a drop back to support near $95,249.

BTC/USD 1H chart via Bitstamp on Feb. 15, 2025.

Oscillator readings are mixed this weekend, with the relative strength index (RSI) at 47, Stochastic standing at 48, the commodity channel index (CCI) at -37, and the awesome oscillator at -3,164, all in neutral territory. However, momentum at 1,081 indicates an optimistic signal, while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) level at -892 suggests some bearish pressure.

Moving averages are also divided on Saturday, with the exponential moving average (EMA) 10 at BTC price of $97,516 and the simple moving average (SMA) 10 at $96,900 signaling bullish conditions, while the EMA 20, SMA 20, EMA 30, and SMA 30 indicated negative signals. The longer-term EMAs and SMAs for 100 and 200 periods remained bullish, reflecting underlying strength in bitcoin’s price structure at the moment.

Overall, bitcoin’s price action remains at a critical juncture, with key resistance levels near $100,000 determining its next directional move. A breakout above this psychological barrier with strong volume could push prices toward $102,569 and beyond, while failure to sustain momentum may trigger a retest of lower support levels near $94,091.

Bull Verdict:

Bitcoin’s price structure remains intact despite recent consolidation, with strong long-term support from the 100-period and 200-period moving averages. A break above $100,000 with sustained volume could ignite bullish momentum toward $102,569 and potentially $105,035, aligning with key Fibonacci retracement levels. If buyers reclaim control, bitcoin may enter a renewed uptrend, targeting fresh highs in the coming weeks.

Bear Verdict:

With multiple rejections near key resistance levels and declining volume, bitcoin faces the risk of further downside pressure. The MACD remains in bearish territory, and failure to break above $100,000 could lead to a retest of support near $94,091, or even a drop toward $89,164 if selling pressure intensifies. If bitcoin struggles to hold above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, a deeper correction may unfold.

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