Michael Saylor-led MicroStrategy has become a bitcoin proxy, has been buying tokens since 2020. In recent weeks, it has intensified its purchases as bitcoin has rallied to highs above $99,000 following Trump’s presidential win earlier this month.
MSTR’s BTC Buying Spree
Just last week, MicroStrategy purchased another 55,000 bitcoins (BTC-USD) last week for $5.4 billion as the world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading at all-time highs.
MSTR has been in the spotlight in recent weeks due to its continuing large BTC acquisitions and a run-up in its share price. Notably, a 515% increase this year briefly took it into the top 100 largest U.S. publicly traded companies by market cap.
Notably, this purchase comes as MicroStrategy last week completed its latest sale of convertible debt, raising $3 billion on the note due 2029 with a 0% coupon and a 55% conversion premium.
Fred Kreuger Shares MSTR’s Modeling
Notably, a Bitcoin maxi and an investor, Fred Krueger, in a recent X post, shared some modeling he has done of the next year of MSTR ATM issuance and Convert Issuance. He noted that while the details will be out in a few days after a review of the analysis, the broad strokes are clear.
He started off by noting that MSTR is going to buy a lot of Bitcoin next year, probably on par (30 Billion or more) than all the ETF buying so far in 2024, he noted. This move, he believes, will boost the rally in Bitcoin next year. He shared with his followers that he is convinced that Bitcoin will achieve 200K and possibly much higher than that as well.
He remarked that MSTR is going to accrete Bitcoin per share as long as the multiple holds, which is massive for existing MSTR shareholders, as it gives them protection against mnav compression. In his opinion, it’s not sufficient to switch out of BTC for MSTR stock, especially with tax consequences.
Focusing On the Next 12 Months
Furthermore, he noted that debt is not a risk factor for the next 2-3 years, even in a reasonable bear market. He concluded by stating that a lot can happen post-2025, including bear markets, and strategic bitcoin reserve war accumulation among other things. However, he believes that it’s not too important to focus on it and just narrow down the view to the next 12 months.
