The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has moved to block a Minnesota state law that bans prediction markets, platforms that let users bet on the outcome of events.
The outright ban on prediction markets is within the broader 2026 public safety bill (SF760), which Governor Tim Walz signed into law on the 18th of May. The new law authorizes felony charges for any firm that operates prediction markets after the state issues it a cease and desist letter.
On the 19th of May, the CFTC swiftly filed a lawsuit to block the law before it becomes effective on the 1st of August. Commenting on the same, CFTC’s chair Michael Selig said,
This Minnesota law turns lawful operators and participants in prediction markets into felons overnight.
Citing the hedging benefits of the prediction markets, Selig continued,
Minnesota farmers have relied on critical hedging products on weather and crop-related events for decades to mitigate their risks. Governor Walz chose to put special interests first, and American farmers and innovators last.
Prediction market wars: CFTC vs. states
The CFTC scored a partial win against Arizona, which ruled that it had the sole oversight authority over event contracts based on the Commodity Exchange Act.
Using the same argument, the CFTC seeks to block other states like Connecticut, Illinois, and New York from banning prediction markets.
Meanwhile, some states like Massachusetts and Ohio have won preliminary injunctions against prediction market firm Kalshi and the CFTC. As such, the platforms must adhere to local gambling laws or stop operations.
Ultimately, the lack of consensus among lower courts would mean the legal fight will likely be escalated to the Supreme Court for final resolution.
Simultaneously, the overall prediction markets are now doing $20 billion in average monthly trading volume. This further underscores the booming interest in the segment, but it remains to be seen how regulation will shape it.
Despite banning prediction markets, Minnesota has approved bank-led crypto custody services that will be effective from August.
Final Summary
- CFTC has filed a lawsuit to block Minnesota’s crackdown on prediction markets.
- This is part of an ongoing fight for oversight in the market that has grown into a $20 billion monthly trading volume.
