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Bitcoin (BTC) is set to more than double in value through 2024, but investors who bought BTC last year have made an average of 40% unrealized gains based on the “realized price” metric.
The realized price is calculated by averaging the value of all Bitcoin at the last price it moved on the chain. The historical realized price of BTC since its inception in 2009 was around $41,000, while for coins purchased in 2024, that figure reached $65,901 by year-end. With Bitcoin’s market price closing at around $93,000 on December 31, last year’s buyers were sitting on a significant amount of unrealized profit on average.
The realized price serves as a benchmark for understanding the cost basis and overall profit or loss of individual bitcoin participants. Bitcoin would need to fall roughly 31% to reach the average breakeven price for buyers in 2024. This metric has also gained importance due to the launch of spot-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States on January 11, 2024, and is closely aligned with the beginning-of-year cost basis for many investors.
Historically, Bitcoin price drops below realized price typically signal local market bottoms. This has been observed several times in January 2024, shortly after the ETF launch, and again in mid-year, making realized price a critical indicator for investors.
As the year 2025 begins, the average cost basis for Bitcoin buyers has risen to around $95,500.
*This is not investment advice.
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