As we approach the next Bitcoin halving event, scheduled for Saturday, April 20 at approximately 1:00 am ET, it is worth taking a look at how the Bitcoin price has reacted before and after previous halvings.
Historically, the year following the halving has seen significant increases in Bitcoin’s price:
- 2012: 8.839%
- 2016: 285%
- 2020: 548%
The month following the halving saw more mixed results:
- 2012: 9%
- 2016: -10%
- 2020: 6%
While the data we have is limited, an interesting pattern emerges: The market is pricing in the short-term impact of the halving but underestimating the long-term impact.
Former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes shared his thoughts on the upcoming Bitcoin halving in a Medium post last week. While discussing the halving, which is seen as a bullish catalyst for cryptocurrency markets, he said:
“I agree that this will raise prices in the medium term, but price movements immediately before and after may be negative.”
Hayes also noted:
“The narrative that the halving is positive for crypto prices is well established. When most market participants agree on a particular outcome, the opposite often occurs.
“I believe that Bitcoin and crypto prices will generally decline during the halving period.”
*This is not investment advice.
