An analyst spotted a repeating Bitcoin pattern from April to May 2025, suggesting one last dip before a possible breakout, if key support holds.
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a net decline of approximately 3.4% over the past week, falling from around $110,000 to a local low near $103,000. As of today, the crypto has staged a modest recovery and is currently priced at $105,333.
Despite the consistent downtrend, chart analyst Moustache on X has identified a recurring bullish pattern that may suggest a continuation to higher levels. His analysis focuses on a repeated ascending broadening wedge structure observed on the four-hour BTC/USDT chart from the OKX exchange.
Repeating Wedge Structures With Similar Breakout Behavior
The first ascending broadening wedge, identified by Moustache, began forming on April 23 and lasted through early May. During this period, Bitcoin’s price faced resistance at three key points: around $94,500 on April 25, above $97,000 on May 1, and at $97,900 on May 2.
Support also held firm multiple times, notably at $91,800 on April 24, again at $92,900, and finally at $93,817 just before a breakout occurred.
This initial breakout occurred in the first week of May, with Bitcoin moving from roughly $93,000 to a local peak near $104,000 before stabilizing.
A second ascending broadening wedge began developing in mid-May and remains active into early June. This pattern also features rising support and resistance levels. Key support points include $100,700 on May 12 and $103,489 shortly afterward. The resistance line reached its peak on May 21 when Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $111,980.
Following the retreat from the all-time high on May 22, Bitcoin’s price moved downward toward the established support zone and is now attempting to rebound from that level.
Analyst Moustache noted that a final minor dip could occur, identifying $102,000 as a preferred entry point and $97,000 as a critical level that must hold.
His chart also features a speculative projection outlining a potential parabolic breakout scenario. This projection suggests that if the current pattern mirrors previous price behavior, Bitcoin could surpass the $125,000 mark.
BTC About to See a Summer Lull?
In a separate update, Bitcoin Magazine Pro released a Monthly Returns Heatmap showing BTC’s performance from 2017 through May 2025.
The data reveals that Bitcoin closed May 2025 with an 11.09% gain, following a 14.21% increase in April. These gains represent the first back-to-back positive monthly returns since September, October, and November 2024.
This rebound comes after a period of volatility in early 2025. Notably, February ended with a sharp 17.54% loss, marking the most significant monthly drop this year.
June and July Remain Historically Unstable
Looking ahead, Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s chart highlighted that June has historically delivered inconsistent results. Over the last eight years, Bitcoin has posted losses in five of those June’s.
For June 2025, the month-to-date return currently stands at 0.98%, keeping the trend positive but only slightly.
Further, July has seen both high volatility and mixed results. Strong returns were recorded in July 2017, 2018, and 2020, with gains of 16.71%, 21.17%, and 24.00%, respectively. However, the following years produced weaker performances, including a 4.15% decline in 2023 and a modest 3.10% rise in 2024.
Accordingly, the analysis raised whether BTC might face a “summer lull,” with below-average or even negative returns in the coming months.
