Bloomberg senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has warned that Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially fall to $40,000 despite currently trading above $100,000.
McGlone tied his bearish outlook to broader macroeconomic trends, particularly the risk of deflation and a long-delayed recession that could weigh heavily on risk assets like Bitcoin, he said in an X post on June 3.
He pointed to a recent peak in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio in May, suggesting it may have topped out, especially if U.S. equity markets begin to decline.
“Bitcoin $40,000, Gold $4,000; Inflation vs. Deflation, Recession – The languishing price of Bitcoin vs. gold in 2025 may reflect anticipation of a typical cycle where deflation follows inflation,” he said.
The ratio, which recently hovered around 33, could narrow significantly if gold strengthens and Bitcoin weakens, a scenario McGlone views as increasingly likely.
While markets largely shrugged off recession fears in 2023, McGlone believes the economic downturn was postponed.
Gold and S&P 500 price target
In this case, investors may turn to traditional safe havens like gold if the economy contracts and the S&P 500 falls toward the 4,000 level. Therefore, gold could surge to $4,000 an ounce, and the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio could drop to around 10, implying a BTC price near $40,000.
Such a decline would mark a 62% drop from its current price of $105,387.
As Finbold reported, McGlone has emphasized the evolving relationship between Bitcoin and gold.
He noted that gold’s recent outperformance of the S&P 500, despite competition from Bitcoin, could signal the early stages of a broader market correction.
Notably, amid ongoing market uncertainty, including President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, gold has reached new highs while the stock market has experienced significant volatility.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, has remained in consolidation above $100,000, recently hitting a record high of over $111,000.
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