Gibraltar has issued its first license to a prediction market operator, as higher UK gambling taxes begin to put pressure on the territory’s core remote gaming industry.
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The license was granted to Predict Street Ltd on March 26, according to a statement by Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry Nigel Feetham, who described prediction markets as a potential area of growth for the jurisdiction.
The company says it is the “official prediction market partner” of the 2026 FIFA World Cup and operates on infrastructure provided by a blockchain firm based in Abu Dhabi.
Pressure on the Gambling Model
The move comes as Gibraltar’s remote gambling sector faces rising costs linked to changes in UK tax policy. The industry, which serves primarily UK customers, accounts for roughly one-third of the territory’s tax revenue.
Recent tax increases are expected to significantly raise the effective rate for Gibraltar-based operators, potentially affecting profitability. Feetham linked the licensing decision to these changes, noting that he has taken a more direct role in promoting Gibraltar’s regulatory offering since the tax measures were introduced.
Exploring a New Segment
Prediction markets represent a different regulatory category from traditional betting, but their classification remains contested across jurisdictions.
By issuing a license, Gibraltar is allowing operators in this segment to establish a regulated presence locally, rather than operating offshore.
Other jurisdictions are also examining the space. Malta has said it is working on a framework for licensing prediction market operators, while countries such as France and the Netherlands continue to treat such platforms as gambling and restrict access.
Limited Signal for Now
The licensing of a single operator does not yet indicate how large this segment could become. While prediction markets are attracting interest, it remains unclear whether they can offset potential losses in Gibraltar’s gambling sector.
For now, the move suggests that Gibraltar is testing a new area of activity as its existing business model comes under pressure.
