FED official Mary Daly said in her statements that the US economy is currently in “good shape” and monetary policy is “balanced”.
Daly said that the impact of the customs duties on inflation, which have recently been on the agenda, does not seem to be as serious as first announced, and that the continuous decline in inflation is also a positive development.
“The economic fundamentals are moving toward the possibility of a rate cut,” Daly said, but he said a rate cut could be more appropriate in the fall unless there is significant weakening in the labor market.
The FED member also stated that caution should be exercised regarding the future course of customs duties, saying, “Other potential customs duty measures may not have as great an impact on inflation as is thought.” However, he added that it was unclear to what extent these measures would be reflected on consumers.
On the other hand, the new FED economic forecasts released this week indicate that growth will slow and inflation will increase slightly. However, FED officials predict that interest rates will be cut this year. This shows that they accept that customs duties will put pressure on prices, but they think this effect will not last long.
However, there are striking differences of opinion within the FED. Seven of the 19 officials argue that no interest rate cuts should be made this year, while eight predict two interest rate cuts. This view coincides with investors’ expectations of two 25 basis point rate cuts in September and December. Two officials expect one, and two officials expect three.
*This is not investment advice.
