The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark fed funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5%, marking the first rate cut in four years after the central bank’s most aggressive hiking cycle.
Fed members expect median benchmark rates to come down to 4.4% by year-end, reflecting some 50 bps more cuts in the next two Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, according to the Fed’s quarterly economic projection. That’s up from only one cut projected in June.
In the minutes following the FOMC decision, the price of bitcoin (BTC) shot up 1.2% to $61,000 before paring gains. The largest cryptocurrency is down 0.5% over the past 24 hours. U.S. equities also jumped higher, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq up 0.8% and the S&P 500 gaining 0.6%. Gold was mostly flat below $2,600.
Markets universally expected looser monetary policy from September as Chairman Jerome Powell said at last month’s Jackson Hole symposium that “the time has come for policy to adjust” with cooling inflation and rising unemployment rate. Traders, however, were divided on whether the Fed would lower rates by 25 bps or opt for a larger, 50 bps cut. Prior to Wednesday’s decision, the market priced in 40% chance for a smaller and 60% probability for a bigger cut, the CME FedWatch Tool showed.
The uncertainty laid the groundwork for a volatile session. Crypto market maker Wintermute predicted 2%- 3% price swings for bitcoin in either direction following today’s decision.
Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO, said in an interview with CoinDesk that the Fed’s rate cuts might crash markets due to narrowing borrowing rate differentials between the U.S. dollar and Japanese Yen. This would lead to investors unwinding their yen-based carry trades en masse. Notably, the same dynamic triggered the August 5 crash for stocks and digital assets, which briefly pushed BTC below $50,000.
Further clues to policymakers’ thinking will come shortly as Chairman Powell holds a post-meeting press conference starting at 2:30 pm ET.
