US President Donald Trump’s harsh statements regarding a potential war with Iran caused the price of Bitcoin ($BTC) to fall below $67,000, wiping out gains made in previous days.
With this decline expected to continue, one analyst has claimed that Bitcoin could fall to $10,000.
An analyst at CryptoQuant, using the pseudonym XWIN Research, claimed that in a worst-case scenario, $BTC could fall to $10,000.
The analyst said the current price structure is heavily reliant on derivatives rather than spot demand.
It has been noted that open interest in CME Bitcoin futures is concentrated in short-term leveraged positions of 18,000 to 20,000 $BTC. Such a structure is fragile.
According to the analyst, this situation could lead to a series of liquidations and selling pressures during periods of negative news, as investors would close their positions rather than roll them over.
Given Bitcoin’s current fragile state and vulnerability to news, the analyst outlined several possible scenarios that could be anticipated.
At this point, in the medium-term scenario, Bitcoin could fall to $50,000. This represents a 25% to 30% decrease.
If spot ETF outflows and weak spot demand continue, $BTC could fall to the $20,000-$30,000 range (60% to 70%).
In the worst-case scenario, for example, if the Strait of Hormuz is blockaded or a full-scale war breaks out with the participation of more countries, a sharp contraction in global liquidity and oil prices hovering between $150 and $200 could see $BTC fall to $10,000 (80%).
*This is not investment advice.
