The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin ($BTC), continues to trade below $70,000 due to increasing macroeconomic uncertainty stemming from the US-Iran conflict.
Although talk of a bottom for $BTC has increased recently after facing sharp declines since October, one analyst predicted further declines before the bottom is reached.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo, in his analysis from account X, predicted that $BTC’s bottom could be in the $46,000-$54,000 range.
According to Woo, on-chain models indicate a bottom for $BTC in the $46,000-$54,000 range.
According to Woo, who noted that this prediction is based on traditional on-chain models, an indicator representing capital flows into $BTC has shown consistent outflows since November of last year.
“Traditional onchain models predict that $BTC will bottom out between $46,000 and $54,000. They also offer clues as to how long we should wait.”
The orange line represents the capital held within $BTC, and there have been sharp outflows of this capital since November.
Woo also noted that the Cumulative Value Days Destruction (CVDD) bottom pattern, which has a rising base line over time, currently indicates a value of approximately $45,500.
“The advantage of the CVDD Condominium Model is that its value increases over time; currently it is 45,500 TL.”
Woo concluded by stating that all of these on-chain models operate based on historical data and issued a warning to investors.
According to Woo, the models are based on historical behavior encompassing only four previous bear markets within a broader risk asset bull market cycle, and if this fundamental changes, the market could enter a deeper, unprecedented bear market phase.
“Although the on-chain model is based on historical data, the scope of the analysis is limited given that Bitcoin has only experienced four bear markets to date, and even these occurred within a long-term bull market environment for risky assets.”
If this trend collapses and doesn’t happen again, the market could enter a deeper and more uncertain bear market phase.
*This is not investment advice.
