Pro-Bitcoin (BTC) analyst Timothy Peterson made striking assessments about the Fed’s monetary policy and market outlook.
Peterson argued that keeping interest rates at current levels would not solve structural problems but would instead make the economy suffer even more.
According to Peterson, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) has declined by 5% or more before every recession in the last 50 years, and the Fed has cut interest rates each time. However, despite the LEI experiencing a historic decline between 2022 and 2025, the Fed has still not cut interest rates. The analyst described this as anomalous, stating, “There’s a recession this cycle, but the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) hasn’t officially declared it.”
Peterson stated that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused disruptions in global trade and supply chains, creating supply shocks for energy, food, and critical minerals. The analyst emphasized that these structural problems cannot be solved by high interest rates, commenting, “As long as interest rates remain high, growth will slow further, unemployment will rise, and consumption will be suppressed.”
Peterson, claiming that the Fed’s fight against inflation will fail, said, “The root cause of inflation is supply constraints. The Fed’s tools cannot solve this problem. Furthermore, consumers are in debt, income growth is slow, and food prices remain high.”
The analyst also said stock markets weren’t as strong as expected. “The majority of the rise in the S&P 500 is coming from just a few tech companies,” Peterson said. “This suggests it’s not a broad-based rally.”
Peterson argued that in current conditions, investors should turn to what he describes as “hard assets” to protect their portfolios:
“The Fed can’t fix structural problems. Global supply chains are broken, the government is overspending. Inflation is inevitable. Gold and Bitcoin must be at the core of your portfolio if you want to survive.”
*This is not investment advice.
