Today, Bitcoin briefly dipped to the lower range of the $90K region, stirring bear market fears, especially as the market has yet to fully recover from the February 3 bloodbath.
Meanwhile, industry leaders like Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, continue to reassure that the market remains in a bullish phase, at least according to key indicators.
In a tweet today, Young Ju shared an on-chain analysis showing that Bitcoin’s realized price data suggests a strong bull market. The metric revealed a critical level where a breach below could spell trouble.
For context, the realized price refers to the average acquisition price of Bitcoin for different groups of holders. While Bitcoin currently sits at $95K, ETFs, custody wallets, and major market players are holding at strategic price points.
Key Realized Price Levels of Bitcoin Holders:
- ETFs and Custody Wallets: $89K
- Binance Traders: $59K
- Mining Companies: $57K
- Old Whales: $25K (historically never breached)
This implies that institutional investors, particularly those holding Bitcoin through ETFs and custody wallets, have an average cost basis of $89K.
Meanwhile, Binance traders are positioned lower, with their realized price averaging around $59K. This suggests that many retail and exchange participants acquired their BTC at more favorable prices.
Mining companies hold their Bitcoin at an average realized price of $57K. Notably, the miners’ realized price has historically been a crucial indicator of market sentiment.
In previous downturns—such as in May 2022, March 2020, and November 2018—falling below this threshold marked the beginning of extended bear markets.
However, old whales, who have been in the market for years, maintain a significantly lower cost of $25K. According to Young Ju, this level has never been breached in Bitcoin’s history.
Essentially, Bitcoin’s resilience above these realized price levels suggests continued institutional confidence, particularly from ETFs and custody wallets.
While short-term volatility remains a possibility, historical trends indicate that BTC’s long-term bullish structure remains intact.
Bull Cycle Remains Intact Even with 30% Dip
Crypto analyst Chainyoda questioned whether a stock market decline could trigger a BTC drop. However, Young Ju dismissed concerns about a bear market, stating that even a 30% correction from BTC’s all-time high wouldn’t necessarily end the bull run.
“If BTC drops from $110K to $77K, that would still be in line with past bull cycles,” he explained.
I don’t think we’ll enter a bear market this year.
We’re still in a bull cycle. The price would eventually go up, but the range seems broad.
I personally think that the bull cycle could continue even with a -30% dip from ATH (e.g., 110K → 77K), as seen in past cycles.
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) February 19, 2025
With Bitcoin’s price currently hovering around $95.6K, market participants are to monitor the $57K miner level as a key benchmark for sustaining the ongoing bull run.
