One of the most brutal, yet telling, fakeouts we have seen in weeks was just delivered by Ethereum. Bulls briefly believed that a breakout was in progress as the price pushed straight into the intersection of key resistance levels (the 50 EMA, 100 EMA and the general downtrend structure).
Ethereum’s price review
Rather, ETH was hit hard almost immediately, rebounding under important averages and rejecting close to $3,500. Such a move is not haphazard, rather, it is an aggressive test of market conviction, coupled with a liquidity grab. The subtlety is that such a fakeout typically occurs close to the conclusion of a rally leg, rather than at the start. It clears stop levels, exposes weak hands and drives out impatient traders.
However, it also puts pressure on bears because, if ETH maintains its higher-low structure following such a strong rejection, it indicates that demand below is still robust enough to sustain the market. ETH is currently trading close to the mid-$3,100s, just above the area that served as a starting point for the previous 10-day increase. It will be very important.
Even if buyers defend it, the larger structure still supports continuing. There is no mass exit, just a pullback following an overextension, the RSI stays neutral and the volume is not displaying panic.
Two scenarios
Scenario 1: Rally continues
The market may try another push above $3,450-$3,500 if ETH stabilizes above $3,100 and starts to grind back toward the 50 EMA. Clearly breaking that level would create a path toward the psychological $4,000 zone and pave the way for a more extensive reversal. After that, the fakeout turns into a spring, which is a typical setup for a longer bullish leg.
Scenario 2: Breaks in momentum
The recovery trend weakens if ETH drops below $3,050 once more. The macro setup is delayed, but not destroyed, by that. Bulls would have to retest $2,900 in order to rebuild their structure from lower levels.
ETH’s upward trajectory has not stopped, despite the messy performance. The market has not collapsed, despite the harsh fakeout. The rally can undoubtedly continue if buyers hold the line.
