An interesting technical outlook frames the current Ethereum price action as a range-bound environment on the higher timeframe, where patience is going to dictate the next move.
The Ethereum price action is now at a sensitive zone, and according to crypto analyst Minga, the path to a genuine cycle bottom requires one more leg down, and the levels that need to be wiped out before a macro bottom are defined.
$ETH Trading In A Multi-Year Range
Technical analysis of the weekly candlestick timeframe chart shows that Ethereum is consolidating within a broad macro range whose boundaries are defined by two extremes: the 2021 all-time high at $4,877 on the upper end and the 2022 bear market low at $878 on the lower end.
According to crypto analyst Minga, the way to trade such a range-bound market is as easy as can be: trade level to level. Interestingly, the $ETH has followed a predictable sequence while trading within this range. The price swept the 2021 all-time high, rejected a little bit above to create a new all-time high of $4,946, and has been in a downtrend since.
The most recent move saw the Ethereum price fall into an untapped monthly low around $1,750 in February, where buyers stepped in and pushed $ETH back upward. That bounce, however, lacked follow-through.
The rally stalled in the $2,300 range in March, and it subsequently retraced and printed acceptance below $2,151. As it stands, Ethereum is now back to trading around $2,000, which is an important psychological level. This, in turn, places the Ethereum price in what can only be described as the no man’s land of the range, where the next directional move can go either up or down.
Ethereum Price Chart. Source: @Mingarithm On X
A Brief Rebound Or A Direct Move Lower?
The analyst identified the $2,151 price level as a major pivot point. Price action recently attempted to reclaim this level but failed, showing clear rejection. That rejection keeps bearish continuation on the table for now.
As long as $ETH remains below $2,151, the path of least resistance appears tilted to the downside. A successful reclaim, however, would change the short-term outlook. Minga pointed to a move to $2,395 if that happens, where there is a fair value gap.
Minga’s downside expectation is to play out in two stages. The first stop is $1,537, where there is a cluster of weekly equal lows (labeled “EQLs” on the chart above), creating an obvious liquidity target. Minga expects this level to be taken, though $1,537 will not be where Ethereum’s macro bottom forms.
The true bottom target is much deeper. For a legitimate cycle bottom, Minga is watching for a sweep of $1,384, the previous structural low. Even more notably, Minga highlights the $1,190 to $1,148 zone as the most likely region for a macro bottom to form.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
