TLDR
- Ether’s price has fallen below its realized price, a historical signal of market capitulation.
- President Trump’s tariffs and low institutional demand are creating strong selling pressure in the US.
- Technical indicators suggest a possible further correction that could take the asset down to $1,100.
The market’s second-largest digital currency has had a turbulent start to the week. During Tuesday’s session, Ethereum fell, but the psychological support at $1,800 remains firm. Over the last 30 days, it has accumulated losses of 38% due to macroeconomic uncertainty.
Industry experts point out that the spot price fell below the realized price, which currently stands at $2,380. Generally, when the price stays below this average cost basis, the market begins to feel panic, triggering mass sell-offs from investors who feel they are “underwater.”
To make matters worse, United States tariff policies have impacted market sentiment, cooling the appetite for risk. Consequently, the Coinbase Premium Index dropped to levels not seen since the harsh bear market of 2022.
Technical Analysis and Institutional Capital Outflows
Technically speaking, the pattern forming on the weekly chart reveals a concerning setup for ETH bulls. The 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) is dangerously approaching the 100-week EMA—a crossover that, in 2018 and 2022, preceded drops of more than 45%.
It isn’t just visual indicators; institutional demand has almost completely vanished in recent months. US-based spot Ethereum ETFs recorded their fifth consecutive week of outflows, totaling withdrawals of $1.3 billion.
In summary, network weakness and a lack of interest from large funds suggest that the bottom has not yet been reached. If the current support at $1,800 fails, the next technical target for bears lies in the $1,100 zone, redefining the immediate future of the ecosystem.
