Ethereum’s price is yet to show any willingness to recover, as the market has been moving sideways over the past week.
However, the current level can initiate a rebound if the price holds above it.
Technical Analysis
By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)
The Daily Chart
ETH’s daily chart remains bearish, with the price struggling to hold above the $1,900 support area after a prolonged downtrend. A breakdown of this level could reinforce further downside, potentially targeting the $1,600 support zone if selling pressure persists. The 200-day moving average remains well above, located around the $2,900 mark, signaling a strong bearish bias.
Meanwhile, the RSI is in the oversold territory, which suggests a short-term bounce could occur. A decisive break above $2,000 with strong volume could shift momentum toward $2,200, but failure to do so would likely confirm continued weakness in the short term.
The 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart shows a breakout from the descending wedge pattern, indicating a potential trend reversal. However, price action remains trapped around the $1,900 resistance zone, with multiple rejections signaling a lack of strong bullish momentum.
The RSI is recovering but still below overbought conditions, suggesting room for further upside if ETH can close above this key resistance area. A confirmed breakout above $2,000 could trigger a rally toward $2,100-$2,200, while failure to hold above $1,900 may lead to a retest of the $1,800 support level. Volume confirmation will be crucial in determining whether this breakout sustains or results in another rejection.
Onchain Analysis
By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)
Exchange Reserve
The Ethereum exchange reserve chart shows a continuous decline in the amount of ETH held on exchanges, currently near multi-year lows at around 18.8 million. This suggests a long-term trend of accumulation, as fewer tokens are available for immediate selling. Typically, declining exchange reserves indicate that investors are moving ETH to self-custody or staking, reducing potential selling pressure.
Despite the price drop to $1,900, the lack of a significant spike in exchange reserves implies that panic selling might not be fully materialized, which supports the idea that long-term holders somehow remain confident. From a technical perspective, ETH is at a critical resistance zone near $1,900-$2,000, and if buyers step in, the supply squeeze could lead to a strong recovery.
However, if the asset fails to reclaim key levels and sentiment worsens, some ETH could flow back to exchanges, increasing selling pressure. Watching reserve trends alongside price action will be crucial in determining whether the current downtrend is nearing exhaustion or if further downside remains likely.
