Bitcoin is currently testing the crucial 100-day moving average at $95K, a key support level where a bullish rebound is anticipated.
However, the asset remains confined between this threshold and the ascending channel’s midline, making a decisive breakout essential to confirm the next major trend.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
Bitcoin is currently navigating a critical support zone, stabilizing around the 100-day moving average at $95K. This level holds strong significance as it has historically acted as a foundation for bullish rebounds, with buying interest evident at this juncture. Early indications of recovery suggest that bullish momentum may be building, potentially setting the stage for an upward move.
However, despite this optimism, BTC remains confined within the broader consolidation range of $90K to $108K. A decisive breakout from this range will be necessary to establish a clearer long-term trend. Should buyers regain control, the asset could push toward the ascending channel’s middle boundary at $103K. Until then, heightened volatility and price fluctuations are expected.
The 4-Hour Chart
On the lower timeframe, Bitcoin’s retracement phase has developed into a bullish continuation flag, with the price recently rebounding from the pattern’s lower boundary. This formation has sparked optimism among market participants, as a breakout above the upper trendline at $100K could trigger a surge toward BTC’s all-time high of $108K.
Moreover, Bitcoin enjoys multiple substantial support zones below the current price, making it increasingly difficult for sellers to drive a sustained downturn. Given these factors, an eventual bullish breakout appears to be the more probable scenario from a long-term perspective.
On-Chain Analysis
By Shayan
Bitcoin has witnessed its largest net outflow from exchanges since 2022, signaling a critical shift in on-chain behavior. The data shows this substantial outflow is comparable to the period following the FTX collapse. Such significant exchange withdrawals indicate a 3% reduction in the supply of BTC available on trading platforms, reflecting heightened accumulation activity by holders.
Historically, similar outflows have preceded bullish market movements. A comparable event last July saw a similarly large outflow, correlating with growing institutional interest. This week’s data suggests that significant market participants, potentially funds or institutions, are seizing opportunities to accumulate BTC on price dips.
As exchange supplies decline, the market could experience increased volatility, especially during moments of heightened demand. Traders and investors should monitor this metric closely as it may serve as a precursor to a bullish trend.
