American entrepreneur and investor Kevin O’Leary has pushed back against speculation that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December — a move that typically signals a favorable outlook for crypto.
However, O’Leary doesn’t anticipate a Fed rate hold negatively impacting Bitcoin’s (BTC) price.
“I don’t actually think the Fed’s gonna cut in December,” O’Leary, also known as “Mr Wonderful,” told Cointelegraph during an interview on Tuesday, emphasizing that it’s not “gonna make a difference to Bitcoin.”
Mr. Wonderful doesn’t tip Bitcoin to move more than 5%
“I’m not investing that way. I’m not investing as if the Fed is going to cut rates. So I just don’t see it. I think there are lots of reasons why they might not,” O’Leary said.
O’Leary pointed to there being “a lot of inflation in the system.” The annual inflation rate rose to 3% in September, the highest since January.
“It’s a dual mandate, full employment and inflation. And so the tariffs are starting to take hold and input costs,” O’Leary said. Despite those concerns, market participants have assigned odds of 89.2% to a Fed rate cut in December, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.
The market is tipping a 89.2% chance of the Fed cutting rates in December. Source: CME Group
Crypto traders typically see Fed rate cuts as bullish for riskier assets such as crypto, as investors tend to shift from bonds and term deposits that become less lucrative.
However, an unexpected Fed rate decision could negatively impact Bitcoin’s price and the broader crypto market, some fear.
However, O’Leary doesn’t anticipate this happening.
O’Leary said that Bitcoin has found “a level for now” and doesn’t forecast the price going much lower. “I think it’s going to sort of drift within 5% of where it is now, in either direction, but I don’t see a lot of upside catalyst,” O’Leary said.
Bitcoin has declined by 17.35% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap
Bitcoin is currently trading at $91,440, according to CoinMarketCap.
Fed rate volatility high in lead up to decision
Market expectations for a December rate cut were far less bullish just weeks ago.
On Nov. 19, the odds of an interest rate cut at the December meeting plunged to 33%, only weeks after investors placed the odds of a December rate cut at about 67% during the first week of November.
However, just a couple of days later, on Nov. 21, the odds nearly doubled to 69.40% after dovish remarks from New York Fed president John Williams, who said the Fed can cut rates “in the near term” without endangering its inflation goal.
Bloomberg analyst Joe Weisenthal said it was the reason the odds had “massively increased.”
Following the first rate cut of 2025 in September and another cut in November, markets broadly expected the Federal Reserve to continue easing policy through the end of the year.
