Bitcoin is nearing the $100,000 milestone, and on-chain indicators suggest the bull run is still in its nascent phase.
Today, Bitcoin climbed to unprecedented heights, surpassing $98,000. This milestone comes after Bitcoin broke its previous peak of $93,000 earlier in the week.
Bitcoin’s new peak at $98,300 brings it within 2% of the highly anticipated $100,000 mark. However, experts suggest that the ongoing BTC price movements, while substantial, may just be the beginning of more major price action, echoing historical patterns.
Indicators Signal Bull Market Transition for Bitcoin
Data from CryptoQuant highlights a shift in Bitcoin’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, entering a zone associated with bullish market behavior. This pattern mirrors conditions seen in early 2020, a precursor to the cryptocurrency’s remarkable surge during that year.
#Bitcoin bull market is starting, with data resembling 2020.
Thread 🧵 pic.twitter.com/7BMKxhdYQX
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) November 21, 2024
Ki Young Ju, CryptoQuant’s CEO, noted that recent on-chain whale accumulation has become a driving force in this rally. Previously criticized as exaggerated, the data now aligns with rising market activity, suggesting significant investor confidence.
Additionally, mining economics underscore the bullish outlook. With mining costs doubling after the latest Bitcoin halving event, miners require higher prices to sustain profitability.
The market’s current trajectory suggests these cost pressures may be contributing to the upward movement. Notably, short positions taken by traders are adding fuel to the rally through short squeezes.
Q4 Performance and Halving Cycles
Moreover, the timing of Bitcoin’s rally aligns with historical patterns, particularly its performance in the fourth quarter following halving cycles. In 2020, Bitcoin’s bull market accelerated during Q4, marked by a steep rise in cumulative returns.
Young Ju has suggested a similar trajectory for 2024, emphasizing that whales are unlikely to allow a flat year-over-year performance during this period.
Recovery, Consolidation, and Expansion Phases
Moreover, Bitcoin’s current rally reflects a structured progression through three key phases: recovery, consolidation, and expansion. In the recovery phase, Bitcoin rebounded from $15,000 to $45,000 between 2023 and 2024, mirroring its 2020 recovery from $3,000 to $9,000.
The consolidation phase saw Bitcoin reclaim its previous all-time high (ATH), as observed in 2020-2021, when it moved from $9,000 to $19,000, regaining its 2017 ATH of $19,000.
Similarly, in the current cycle, Bitcoin’s rise from $45,000 to $68,000 represents a consolidation phase aimed at surpassing its 2021 ATH of $68,000.
The expansion phase follows, historically marked by a significant surge after reclaiming the ATH. In 2020, Bitcoin soared from $20,000 to $68,000. A similar expansion is predicted for the 2023-2024 cycle, where Bitcoin is expected to establish new cycle highs far beyond $100,000.
