Digital asset treasury companies will eventually consolidate under a few larger players as the cycle matures and companies try to attract investors, according to Coinbase’s head of investment research, David Duong.
Speaking to Cointelegraph, Duong said outside of strategies to boost share prices, “companies may start to pursue mergers and acquisitions, much like the recent Strive and Semler Scientific deal, as we approach the more mature phases of the DAT cycle.”
Asset manager turned Bitcoin treasury company Strive announced on Sept. 22 that it was acquiring fellow DAT Semler Scientific in an all-stock transaction.
Source: Strive
At the same time, Duong said, DATs are also pursuing more crypto-native strategies, such as generating yields through staking or DeFi looping, which involves repeatedly borrowing and repositioning the same asset to amplify returns.
“And there’s still a lot more they can do here. I think the future will depend a lot on what happens with regulatory shifts, liquidity and market pressures to get a clearer sense of where this could all go long-term.”
On Sept. 15, Standard Chartered predicted that not all DATs will survive in the long term, forcing them to adopt new strategies or fade away.
Crypto treasuries are hoping to dominate one token
Duong and fellow Coinbase researcher Colin Basco said in a Sept. 10 report that the DAT race has entered a player-vs-player phase, with companies battling to stand out from the competition.
Duong said recent share buybacks from crypto treasury firms in the last few weeks are a result of this new stage.
Trump Jr.-linked media company Thumzup, which holds Bitcoin (BTC) and Dogecoin (DOGE), announced on Sept. 24 that it was increasing a share buyback from $1 million to $10 million. Solana (SOL) treasury company DeFi Development Corp also expanded its share repurchase from $1 million to $100 million.
Source: DeFi Development Corp
“I believe where this is coming from is that companies are under the impression that only a handful of major players will dominate each token, and they are competing to differentiate themselves through either size or financial engineering,” Duong said.
“I also think this strategy likely contributed to the negative price action observed in mid-to-late September, as these entities prioritized using capital to boost stock prices over accumulating crypto.”
Some DATs have struggled to maintain share prices, with some losing up to 90% of their value, which has been attributed to market saturation and investor concerns over the sustainability.
Share buybacks don’t equal success
Duong also said that it’s his experience that share buybacks may not always result in a price bump, particularly when the market perceives the action as a negative signal about the company’s long-term health, because it’s ultimately “very much sentiment-driven.”
Related: Crypto treasuries risk 50% downside on PIPE selling pressure
“The effectiveness of buybacks hinges on investors’ perceptions of a company’s underlying fundamentals,” he said.
“For instance, if a DAT is using buybacks as a defensive maneuver to reduce its float, but market players think the company retains an efficient capital allocation strategy and transparent funding, then its share price may benefit. Conversely, the reverse is true when the right conditions aren’t met.”
TON Strategy Company, previously known as Verb Technology Company, announced a stock buyback on Sept. 12, but investors didn’t react positively, with shares declining 7.5%.
DATs have amassed significant holdings
DATs that have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets hold over 1.4 million coins, representing about 6.6% of the total supply, worth over $166 billion.
Companies have acquired over 1.4 million Bitcoin as a treasury asset. Source: Bitbo
At the same time, 68 companies have acquired a total of 5.49 million Ether, worth over $24 billion. Meanwhile, Solana has also seen a large uptake, with nine publicly tracked entities holding more than 13.4 million tokens, worth over $3 billion.
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