Sentiment in cryptocurrency prediction markets is increasingly pointing to a late-year surge for Bitcoin (BTC), despite recent price volatility.
Specifically, insights from Polymarket indicate markets expect stronger momentum in December 2026.
Data shows December leading with a 16% probability, slightly ahead of October and November at 15% each. September follows at 12%, while June, July, and August each carry a 10% likelihood. Earlier months show weaker conviction, with April at 9%, May at 8%, and March at 1%.
Notably, December has one of the highest volumes at $11,232, second only to November’s $16,561. October recorded $5,608, while earlier months like May and June hovered near $5,000, indicating weaker conviction in a near-term breakout.
To this end, the data suggests traders are positioning for a delayed but potentially strong upside phase, with momentum building from September and peaking toward year-end, mirroring a seasonal pattern where gains accelerate in the closing months.
Bitcoin quarterly returns
Historically, Bitcoin has shown strong seasonality, with the fourth quarter its best-performing period.
Since 2013, average Q4 returns have ranged between 77% and 85%, far exceeding other quarters. Much of this strength is typically driven by October and November, which often post gains of about 21% and 46%, supported by post-summer recoveries, portfolio rebalancing, and increased institutional activity. December tends to be more mixed.
This aligns with broader cryptocurrency market cycles, especially in post-halving years, when year-end rallies are common, for the maiden digital asset.
However, seasonality is not guaranteed, as the pattern broke in Q4 2025 when Bitcoin fell 23%, highlighting how macro pressures, corrections, and liquidations can override historical trends.
While bull years such as 2013, 2017, and 2020 saw strong Q4 gains, bear or consolidation phases like 2018 and 2022 recorded declines.
Bitcoin price analysis
Meanwhile, April has started on a positive note, with a short-term rebound over the past 24 hours, but remains below the crucial $70,000 spot. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $68,600, up about 3% on the day, though still down over 4% on the week.
The price remains slightly below the 50-day SMA of $69,191, indicating short-term weakness and difficulty holding above its recent average. The gap to the 200-day SMA at $91,046 remains wide, placing Bitcoin well below its long-term trend and reinforcing a broader bearish structure.
The 14-day RSI stands at 48, reflecting a lack of strong buying or selling pressure, with the market neither overbought nor oversold.
