The next Bitcoin bear market bottom won’t arrive until the final quarter of 2026, and it could push prices down to the $42,000 to $44,000 range, according to one of China’s most recognized Bitcoin miners. Jiang Zhuoer laid out the forecast in a note that draws on Strategy’s (formerly MicroStrategy) declining market-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) ratio, which he sees as a forward-looking gauge for the broader $BTC cycle.
The projection, first covered in the original report from WuBlockchain, comes as Strategy’s mNAV has slipped to about 0.72, approaching the 0.7 level that marked the top of the previous bull-to-bear transition in May 2022. Jiang argues that while the mNAV itself may be carving a bottom, Bitcoin’s final low historically trails by roughly six months. If the pattern repeats, $BTC could be grinding sideways into late 2026 before the recovery begins.
Strategy’s mNAV and the Six-Month Lag
mNAV measures the premium or discount a public company’s shares trade at relative to the net value of the Bitcoin it holds. For Strategy, a sub-1.0 mNAV means the market is pricing the firm below the spot value of its coin stack. That’s happened before. In May 2022, during the unwind from the 2021 highs, the mNAV touched 0.7 and stayed around that level for weeks. Bitcoin’s own cycle bottom, however, didn’t materialize until November 2022, around $15,500.
Jiang’s takeaway is straightforward: the current mNAV compression is signalling the next trough, but it’s a leading indicator, not a coincident one. October to December 2026 now becomes the window where selling pressure could culminate, assuming the lag holds. That places the projected bottom roughly nine to eleven months from now, given the article was published in June 2026.
The $42,000–$44,000 range is notable because it sits well above the 2022 floor but far below the 2025 peak. For miners operating with thin margins, a drop to that level would squeeze profitability unless hashprice holds up through difficulty adjustments and transaction fee spikes.
Why Miners Are Watching This Cycle Closely
Chinese miners like Jiang have unusual insight into the cost side of the network. China’s mining industry, while officially shadowed by the 2021 ban, still accounts for a significant share of global hashrate through overseas hosting operations. A drawn-out bear market would pressure less efficient rigs offline, especially if electricity costs remain elevated. Jiang’s call isn’t just a market prediction; it shapes how large-scale operators manage treasury, expansion, and ASIC procurement through the end of the year.
The mining sector has already shown signs of preparation. Several public miners sold into strength earlier in 2026, raising cash and upgrading fleets. If the $42,000 level becomes a magnet into Q4, those with older-generation machines and high all-in sustaining costs could face a survival test. It’s the kind of scenario where consolidation picks up speed, and well-capitalized players gain hashrate share.
The lag between mNAV and Bitcoin’s bottom also gives miners a planning runway. Instead of panic, the metrics provide a timeline: the next six months may be about preserving capital and positioning for the next halving cycle, which by late 2026 will be well into its second year. Jiang’s note implicitly warns against expecting a quick V-shaped bounce.
Broader Market Forces at Play
While miners brace for a potential retreat, other corners of the crypto market are showing divergent signals. Real-world asset tokenization, for example, continues to expand rapidly, crossing the $20 billion on-chain milestone earlier this month, as highlighted in BlockchainReporter’s recent Weekly Tokenization Roundup. That institutional push suggests deep capital is still flowing into digital assets infrastructure, even if spot prices face headwinds.
On-chain developer activity also tells a story that doesn’t align neatly with a bearish Bitcoin price chart. Metrics tracking commits and core protocol contributions across Layer-1 networks remain elevated, as observed in the latest Top 10 Blockchains by Developer Activity ranking. This disconnect reinforces the view that while Bitcoin’s four-year cycle dynamics still exert a gravitational pull, the broader ecosystem has matured beyond single-asset price swings.
Still, Bitcoin miners sit at the intersection of macro energy costs, ASIC technology cycles, and pure coin economics. Their outlook often filters through to hashprice expectations and, eventually, the security budget of the network. If Jiang’s timing is correct, the second half of 2026 will demand patience from miners and traders alike. The question now is whether Strategy’s mNAV stabilizes at these levels or dips further. A move below 0.6 would almost certainly darken the outlook, while a swift recovery could shorten the projected timeline.
The miner’s projection leaves little room for a sudden reversal. By zeroing in on a narrow price window and a specific end-of-year date, Jiang bets that the crypto winter’s final act will follow a script written by cycles past.
