“Gold Is Going Down”
Wood made the call in remarks this week, basing her argument largely on statistics. She said:
Gold is going down. Since 2019, there’s been no correlation between BTC and gold. The correlation has been 0.1.
A correlation of 1 means the two assets move in lockstep, while a reading near zero means they largely move independently.
Wood believes bitcoin will continue to gain on gold because it “marches to its own beat.”
A Repeat of Her September Call
This is not a new position for Ark Invest’s leader. In September, she told viewers of Ark’s “In The Know” series that bitcoin had “miles to go” against gold and called it “both a risk-off and a risk-on asset.” At the time, bitcoin was trading near $78,008, while spot gold was around $4,377 an ounce. Over the prior year, gold had gained 20%, while bitcoin had lost 28%.
Since then, the ratio has barely changed. With bitcoin at about $74,700 and gold at about $4,141, one bitcoin now buys about 18.1 ounces of gold, compared with roughly 17.8 ounces in mid-September.
Gold’s Rough Year
Wood is betting against a metal that has already taken a heavy hit. Gold set a record of $5,110.50 on Jan. 26, then fell to about $3,986 on Oct. 23, a decline of roughly 22%, Bitcoin.com News reported.
Both assets have disappointed. As of late last month, bitcoin was down 7.3% and gold 7.5% for the year, making them 2026’s worst-performing major assets, according to Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello. HSBC has also warned that gold is losing its standing as a short-term volatility hedge, since leveraged traders are forced to sell it when stocks fall. The bank remains bullish over the long term, citing central bank buying and ETF inflows.
Gold Bugs Are Not Buying It
Short-term data is working against Wood. Gold rose about 1.7% yesterday to settle at $4,141.14 an ounce, while oil prices fell and the dollar weakened. Bitcoin, meanwhile, briefly dropped to $73,700 as more than $1 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated.
Longtime gold advocate Peter Schiff highlighted the divergence, saying that U.S. stocks had been basically flat since the midterms. He added that bitcoin was down more than 4%, while gold was up more than 5%, silver was up almost 7%, and gold mining stocks were up more than 18%. “This is a sign of things to come,” Schiff wrote.
The next catalyst is Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report. Higher interest rates can weigh on both gold and bitcoin because neither pays a yield, and traders are already pricing in a likely December hike by the Federal Reserve. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading would test Wood’s call that gold breaks first.
Bitcoin enters the report on shaky footing after closing below its 50-week moving average, ending a seven-week run of closes above it.
Source: news.bitcoin.com. Adapted by NBTC.
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