With crypto risk appetite still constructive and BTC dominance elevated above 57%, Ethereum price is pressing into a crucial resistance pocket between $3,300 and $3,400.
ETH/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.
Daily chart: Ethereum bias is bullish, but getting extended
On the daily timeframe, Ethereum price (ETHUSDT) is trading at $3,362, comfortably above all its key moving averages and near the upper edge of its recent volatility envelope.
Trend structure – EMAs
– Price: $3,362
– EMA 20: $3,153.68
– EMA 50: $3,149.85
– EMA 200: $3,297.05
All three EMAs are clustered below spot, with the 20- and 50-day essentially on top of each other and both now slightly above the 200-day. This is a constructive setup: the short and medium trend have flipped clearly bullish and have just reclaimed the long-term trend line. Moreover, it means recent dips have been consistently bought and the path of least resistance is still up. The gap between price and the 20/50 EMAs, though, is getting wide enough that a pullback to visit those averages would be normal rather than a sign of trend failure.
Momentum – RSI
– RSI (14d): 66.45
Daily RSI is pushing into the high 60s, just below textbook overbought territory. Buyers are clearly dominant, but we are no longer in the stealth accumulation zone; this is a late-phase impulse inside the uptrend. Historically, RSI in the mid-to-high 60s can sustain for some time in strong markets, but it also marks the zone where failed breakouts often start. That said, upside is still open, but the reward-to-risk for fresh, unhedged longs is less attractive than it was a week ago.
Trend quality – MACD
– MACD line: 66.52
– Signal line: 38.42
– Histogram: 28.09
MACD on the daily is firmly positive with the line comfortably above the signal and a solid positive histogram. That confirms the trend is not just a short squeeze; it is a sustained bullish leg. However, the distance between MACD and its signal is now fairly stretched, which often precedes momentum cooling or at least a sideways digestion. Bulls are in control, but the easy money phase of this leg is likely behind us.
Volatility & range – Bollinger Bands and ATR
– Bollinger middle band (20d): $3,120.95
– Upper band: $3,386.33
– Lower band: $2,855.56
– ATR (14d): $114.83
Ethereum price is hugging the upper Bollinger Band, sitting just a few dollars below it. That is classic late-stage momentum behavior: the trend is healthy, but price is living at the higher end of its recent volatility range. With a daily ATR of roughly $115, the market is signalling that a normal one-day swing of 3–4% in either direction is perfectly on the table. Trading near the upper band plus elevated ATR is a textbook setup for sharp intraday reversals if liquidity thins or BTC sneezes.
Short-term levels – daily pivots
– Pivot point (PP): $3,339.58
– R1: $3,401.17
– S1: $3,300.42
Spot is just above the daily pivot, trading between the pivot and R1. This is a mildly bullish intraday posture: buyers have defended the pivot and are probing overhead resistance. The key micro-battlefield on the daily is the $3,300–3,400 pocket. Holding above the pivot and turning R1 into support would keep the upward grind intact; slipping back below $3,300 would signal that this push is losing steam, at least temporarily.
Daily conclusion: The main scenario on the daily chart is bullish. Trend, momentum, and structure all support further upside, but the market is stretched enough that a pullback or sideways consolidation would be a healthy reset, not a shock.
1-hour chart: bullish, but momentum is flattening
The 1-hour timeframe is where you see the first signs of this leg getting a little tired. The trend is still up, but momentum is no longer exploding.
Trend structure – EMAs
– Price: $3,361.12
– EMA 20: $3,334.31
– EMA 50: $3,293.06
– EMA 200: $3,196.83
– Regime: bullish
Price is above all key intraday EMAs, with a clean staircase higher: 20 > 50 > 200 and spot above the 20. This is as straightforward a 1H uptrend as you will get. The distance from the 200 EMA is sizable, which confirms strength but also shows how far we have come without a proper 1H mean reversion. Consequently, short-term traders buying here are paying a premium versus the base of the move, which increases the risk of getting caught in a snap-back to the 50 or 200.
Momentum – RSI
– RSI (14h): 60.03
Hourly RSI is sitting around 60, a moderate bullish reading. The strong overbought readings are gone; this is more of a controlled grind than a runaway rally. That is constructive for trend continuity, but it also says the immediate upside impulse is no longer as strong as it was. Bulls are still dictating direction, just with less urgency.
Trend quality – MACD
– MACD line: 13.13
– Signal line: 12.91
– Histogram: 0.22
On the 1H, MACD remains slightly positive, but the line is almost glued to the signal and the histogram is close to flat. Momentum is still leaning bullish, yet there is no strong acceleration. This is what you typically see before one of two things: either a renewed push higher if buyers step back in, or a slow roll-over into a consolidation or shallow pullback.
Volatility & bands – Bollinger Bands and ATR
– Bollinger middle band: $3,341.34
– Upper band: $3,392.77
– Lower band: $3,289.91
– ATR (14h): $24.39
ETH is trading slightly above the mid-band on the hourly. The prior squeeze into the upper band has already cooled off, and price is now oscillating in the upper half of the band structure. With an hourly ATR around $24, intraday swings of roughly 0.7% are business as usual. This portrays a controlled advance rather than a blow-off move, but it also leaves room for a quick tag of either band if BTC injects volatility.
Intraday levels – hourly pivots
– Pivot point (PP): $3,362.71
– R1: $3,364.29
– S1: $3,359.53
Price is almost exactly on the hourly pivot cluster. R1 and S1 are compressed just a few dollars away, signalling a narrow equilibrium zone intraday. This is a market waiting for a catalyst. A clean break and hold above the $3,365 area opens the door for another attempt at the daily R1 region; slipping under $3,360 and holding below into the session would put the short-term focus back on support closer to the hourly 50 EMA around $3,290.
1H conclusion: Bullish regime, but momentum is flattening and the market is trading around an intraday equilibrium. ETH is in drift up or consolidate mode rather than a fresh breakout phase on this timeframe.
15-minute chart: tactical execution, micro uptrend
The 15-minute chart is mainly useful for timing, not for deciding directional bias. Right now it aligns with the higher timeframes, but it is more stretched.
Trend structure – EMAs
– Price: $3,361.19
– EMA 20: $3,344.96
– EMA 50: $3,335.87
– EMA 200: $3,291.57
– Regime: bullish
Price is stacked above all 15m EMAs with a clear positive alignment. The spread between spot and the 20/50 EMAs is modest, but the distance to the 200 EMA is substantial. In practice, that means the micro-trend is intact, yet the true value area of this whole short-term leg is far below current price. Any sudden volatility spike can quickly drag price back toward the 50 or even 200 EMA without doing real damage to the higher timeframes.
Momentum – RSI
– RSI (14, 15m): 64.33
On the 15-minute chart, RSI sits in a bullish but not extreme zone, very similar to the daily reading in character. Short-term, buyers are still pressing their advantage after recent upticks, but they are dancing close to levels where local pullbacks often emerge. It is an intraday environment where chasing green candles becomes riskier than buying controlled dips.
Trend quality – MACD
– MACD line: 12.11
– Signal line: 8.91
– Histogram: 3.19
On the 15-minute chart, MACD is clearly positive with a decent gap above its signal and a solid positive histogram. This is one of the few places where momentum is still visibly expanding. Very short-term, that favors continuation higher, but remember that lower timeframes flip first. If the histogram starts contracting while price fails to make new highs, that would be an early warning of intraday exhaustion.
Micro-volatility & pivots
– Bollinger middle band: $3,339.85
– Upper band: $3,379.78
– Lower band: $3,299.93
– ATR (14, 15m): $11.28
– Pivot point (PP): $3,362.73
– R1: $3,364.34
– S1: $3,359.58
ETH is trading just under the 15m pivot with bands wide enough to support $10–15 swings without changing the picture. ATR at $11 points to roughly 0.3% noise per 15 minutes, which is enough to stop out tight intraday trades but not yet a sign of panic. The clustering of the 15m and 1H pivots in the $3,360 area reinforces this region as the immediate tug-of-war level between scalp bulls and bears.
Market context: risk-on, BTC-dominant backdrop
Beyond Ethereum’s own chart, the macro crypto backdrop is constructive but not without risk. Total crypto market cap is around $3.36T and rising, yet 24h volume is down roughly 5%. BTC dominates at about 57.5%, with ETH sitting near 12% of total market cap. The setup is strong risk appetite, but capital is still heavily Bitcoin-centric.
The fear and greed index at 61 (Greed) confirms what the charts already imply: the market is leaning risk-on, but we are transitioning from bargain hunting into momentum chasing. In that phase, Ethereum often lags initial BTC impulses but then plays catch-up aggressively, which aligns with the current technical picture of a strong but slightly overextended trend.
Bullish scenario for Ethereum price
From the current configuration, the dominant scenario remains bullish, but it relies on the trend staying intact across timeframes.
What bulls want to see
On the daily, bulls want Ethereum price to hold above the $3,300 area, which roughly aligns with the daily S1 at $3,300.42 and sits comfortably above the 20/50 EMAs near $3,150. As long as ETH defends that higher-low structure, the uptrend remains clean. A sustained push through the daily R1 at $3,401.17 would likely trigger trend-followers and could send price probing the upper Bollinger Band and beyond.
On intraday charts, a decisive move above the $3,365–3,380 pocket, the 15m and 1H R1 region overlapping with the upper intraday bands, with rising RSI and expanding MACD histogram would signal another leg of momentum. In that case, daily RSI can easily ride into the low-70s before any significant correction, and ATR would frame 4–5% daily ranges as part of an ongoing trend rather than a top.
Bullish path, in plain terms: defend $3,300 on dips, convert $3,400 from resistance into support, and ride the trend while daily EMAs continue to slope up beneath price.
What invalidates the bullish case?
The bullish structure starts to crack if Ethereum price breaks and closes the day below the $3,300 zone and then loses the daily 20/50 EMAs clustered around $3,150. A daily close back under the 200 EMA at $3,297.05 would be the first serious warning the current leg has topped for now.
On intraday charts, an early warning would be 1H price slipping below the 50 EMA, near $3,293, with MACD turning negative and RSI failing to recover above 50 on bounces. That would mark a shift from trend with pullbacks into range or distribution. In that environment, daily MACD would likely start rolling over from its elevated level, confirming waning momentum.
Bearish scenario for Ethereum price
The bearish case does not dominate yet, but the ingredients for a corrective phase are in place: extended daily momentum, euphoric positioning creeping in, and ETH trading near the upper end of its volatility envelope.
What bears need
First, bears need to win the $3,300–3,340 battle. A break and sustained trade below the daily pivot at $3,339.58, followed by loss of S1 at $3,300.42, would signal buyers stepping back. With daily ATR at roughly $115, once that pocket gives way, a slide into the $3,200–$3,230 area is a routine move, not an outlier. That zone sits closer to the 200 EMA and would test the conviction of medium-term bulls.
If selling accelerates and ETH closes a daily candle below the 20/50 EMAs, around $3,150, sentiment will likely flip from buy the dip to wait and see. MACD would start to compress toward its signal line; if it crosses lower while RSI breaks under 50, the narrative shifts decisively from trending market to corrective market on the daily timeframe.
On lower timeframes, the first tactical signal for bears would be successive failures at the $3,365–3,400 area with 15m and 1H MACD diverging, meaning price making similar or lower highs while MACD and RSI roll over. That pattern often leads to a fast mean reversion into the 1H 50 EMA or even the 200 EMA, effectively flushing late longs without necessarily ending the higher-timeframe trend.
Bearish path, in plain terms: reject $3,365–3,400, lose $3,300, then pressure the $3,150–$3,200 support confluence. If those levels fold on a closing basis, bears gain genuine control of the tape.
What invalidates the bearish case?
The near-term bearish scenario is invalidated if Ethereum price can consolidate above $3,400, turning that region into a stable floor rather than a ceiling. If price can repeatedly test higher levels without dragging RSI back below 50 on the daily and while MACD stays comfortably positive, any dips are more likely to be routine pullbacks within a continuing uptrend, not the start of a broader reversal.
How to think about positioning from here
Ethereum is in a bullish phase on the daily chart, supported by an uptrending structure and constructive macro crypto conditions. At the same time, it is trading close to the upper edge of its recent range with stretched daily momentum and a market sentiment profile tilted toward greed. That mix usually favors positioning that respects the trend but is honest about downside risk.
For directional traders, the key is timeframe discipline: the daily signal is still up, but the 1H and 15m show a maturing leg rather than a fresh breakout. This argues against aggressive new longs at market unless you are comfortable sitting through a potential pullback toward the daily EMAs. In practical terms, it is more rational to focus on how ETH behaves around $3,300 support and $3,400 resistance than to anchor on a specific price target.
Volatility is elevated but not extreme: a $100+ daily range is normal right now. That means both upside and downside moves can be sharp enough to trigger emotional decisions if size and leverage are not calibrated. Tight stops in noisy intraday zones like $3,360 can get harvested easily, while very wide stops can turn a tactical trade into an unintended swing position.
The honest read: Ethereum price is bullish until it is not, but the odds of a shakeout or sideways digestion are meaningfully higher now than they were earlier in the leg. Being aware of the key inflection levels, specifically $3,300 support, $3,400 resistance, and $3,150–$3,200 as deeper support, and respecting the current volatility regime matters more than trying to nail the next $50 move.
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Disclaimer: This article is a technical and market-structure analysis, not investment advice. Markets are volatile and unpredictable; always do your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and never rely solely on a single analysis or indicator when making trading decisions.
