Bitcoin (BTC) slipped towards $82,550 late Friday, testing the lower end of its recent $80,000-$87,000 range and trading 0.65% for over 24 hours.
This move lower occurred despite a historically bullish indicator flashing earlier, while options market data continues to reflect trader caution under the shadow of new US tariffs.
Recent options market activity presaged the current weakness. Blockchain analysis platform Glassnode had reported put options trading at a premium, indicating heightened demand for downside protection.
Puts are trading at a premium to calls, signaling a spike in demand for downside protection. This skew is most pronounced in short-term maturities – a level of fear not seen since $BTC was in the $20Ks in mid-’23.
Live chart: https://t.co/WwJzbpxZjp pic.twitter.com/moukdBkFMC
— glassnode (@glassnode) April 4, 2025
Analysis of Options Data
The trend is particularly strong in short-term maturities, reflecting a level of fear not seen since Bitcoin was in the $20,000 range in mid-2023.
This suggests that traders are hedging against potential downside risks, which could translate into short-term selling pressure.
Related: Arthur Hayes Says He ‘Loves Tariffs,’ Explains Why They Are Good for BTC
Additionally, journalist Colin Wu reported that 26,000 BTC options expired on April 4 with a put-call ratio of 1.24 (signaling bearish bias) and a max pain point around $84,000. With BTC now trading below that max pain level, post-expiry price dynamics could remain volatile.
Hash Ribbon Buy Signal Followed by Price Dip
Adding complexity, analyst Ted recently highlighted that Bitcoin’s hash ribbon indicator flashed a buy signal.
Bitcoin hash ribbon indicator has just flashed a buy signal.
Last 3 times this indicator flashed a buy the signal $BTC pumped to hit a new ATH.
Will history repeat itself again? pic.twitter.com/27wgCFTLft
— Ted (@TedPillows) April 3, 2025
While this mining-related signal has historically often preceded strong rallies, the subsequent price dip towards $82,550 puts its immediate predictive power into question or suggests a potential delayed impact.
Technicals Show EMA Resistance, Support Tested
Bitcoin is now trading below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), previously cited near $84,594, which now acts as significant resistance.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), likely lower than previously reported levels near neutral, reflects the weakened price action, though underlying buying attempts may still occur near support.
Bollinger Bands show BTC nearing its lower band support around $80,962. Holding above the immediate $82k level and this lower band support is critical to prevent further declines. Resistance is now firmly established around the 20-day EMA (~$84.6k) and the upper Bollinger Band (~$88k).
Macro Context: Tariffs Loom, BTC Acts as Risk Asset
The broader macro environment remains uncertain. Michael Saylor’s perspective that Bitcoin often trades like risk assets short-term – sold during panic – is relevant as markets anticipate the impact of President Trump’s new tariffs (minimum 10% starting April 5th, higher rates for specific nations like Cambodia, Laos, Madagascar).
Related: Bitcoin’s Trump Tariff Test: Down to $82k, Can $78k Support Endure?
This external pressure contributes to the cautious trading environment.
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