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Bitcoin sellers are grappling with a decisive support zone at the 100-day moving average, with a potential breakdown paving the way for a retest of the critical $90K region.
However, heightened volatility is anticipated, as price action will dictate the market’s next direction.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
After sustained declines, Bitcoin has approached a crucial support zone where significant demand will likely emerge. This level is particularly important as it aligns with the 100-day moving average and the key psychological support at $95K. A confirmed breakdown below this region could accelerate selling pressure, pushing BTC toward the substantial $90K support area.
Conversely, a strong bullish rebound from this level could trigger a recovery, with buyers targeting a retest of the ascending channel’s midline at $100K. Bitcoin remains range-bound between $90K and $108K, and a definitive breakout from this consolidation phase will determine the market’s next major trend.
The 4-Hour Chart
On the lower timeframe, Bitcoin’s price action has been choppy, characterized by a phase of low-volatility consolidation, reflecting market participants’ indecision. The cryptocurrency fluctuates within the $90K-$108K range without establishing a clear trend.
The lower boundary at $90K remains a crucial demand zone, providing strong support since November 2024. Bitcoin could stage another rally toward $108K in the mid-term if buyers successfully defend this level. However, a breakdown below this threshold could invalidate this scenario and expose the price to deeper corrections.
Until Bitcoin decisively exits this prolonged trading range, traders should remain cautious, as heightened volatility is expected.
On-chain Analysis
By Shayan
The realized price of UTXO age bands, specifically the 1-3 month cohort, provides crucial insight into short-term holders’ behavior and overall market sentiment. This metric reflects the average acquisition price of recent buyers, serving as a dynamic support or resistance level that signals market confidence.
Historically, when Bitcoin tests this level from above, it often acts as support, suggesting that short-term holders remain confident in their positions despite elevated price levels. Bitcoin has declined toward the realized price of the 1-3 month UTXO cohort, which is around $96K. Holding above this key level reinforces a bullish market sentiment, increasing the likelihood of an extended upward trend.
However, if Bitcoin fails to maintain support at this critical threshold and breaks below, it could trigger a shift in sentiment toward fear, potentially leading to a distribution phase. As a result, price action around this level will play a decisive role in shaping Bitcoin’s short- to mid-term trajectory.
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