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São Paulo-based cryptocurrency exchange Mercado Bitcoin (MB), one of Latin America’s largest trading platforms, released a report outlining six major trends it expects to define the crypto market in 2026.
The report identifies a major expansion in stablecoins, tokenization, altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and AI-driven trading as key forces shaping the next phase of the industry.
Bitcoin to gold ratio changes
MB estimates that bitcoin $BTC$90,566.73 could reach 14% of gold’s market capitalization by the end of 2026. That ratio is currently at 5.65%, meaning that, all else equal, the price of bitcoin would more than double.
The report cites bitcoin’s growing role as a store of value, particularly in comparison to gold, which faces logistical challenges around transport and storage. The cryptocurrency’s adoption by institutional treasuries, which have accumulated more than 1.09 million bitcoin so far, also shows bitcoin is no longer a niche asset, the firm said.
Bitcoin’s digital, borderless, and self-custodied nature has allowed it to capture interest from investors looking for alternatives to traditional safe havens, the report adds.
The 14% figure, MB added, isn’t a guess but rather the result of a valuation methodology developed in partnership with researchers from the University of California (UCLA).
“In the “Bitcoin Valuation Framework,” we use, among other methods, a Total Addressable Market (TAM) approach to estimate $BTC‘s theoretical value,” the report reads. “Instead of forcing traditional cash flow models onto a monetary asset, we start with the global store-of-value market, use gold as the primary benchmark, and project what fraction of this market Bitcoin might capture under different adoption scenarios.”
That framework, the firm’s analysts wrote, takes them to their base scenario where bitcoin reaches 14% of gold’s market capitalization this year.
Stablecoins to grow to half a trillion
MB expects to see the stablecoin sector, already a core part of the crypto infrastructure, grow to reach a market capitalization of $500 billion in 2026. That, in part, will be over the growth of stablecoins that aren’t tied to the U.S. dollar.
According to MB, stablecoins have evolved from trading tools into payment instruments across countries and sectors. “[Stablecoins] play an essential role as a source of liquidity for the sector, facilitating the rapid and secure movement of resources without exposure to the volatility of other digital assets,” the report adds.
It notes that in 2025, total market capitalization of stablecoins grew nearly 50% year over year, a trend the company attributes to broader adoption and regulatory clarity, particularly in the United States.
The stablecoin sector is currently at $307 billion, with Tether’s USDT commanding 60.5% of it according to DeFiLlama data. It started 2025 around $205 billion.
Altcoin ETFs to stand out
After U.S. regulators began approving ETFs for crypto assets beyond bitcoin and ether in late 2025, funds tied to altcoins like $XRP, solana, and chainlink began attracting capital.
$XRP ETFs alone now manage roughly $1.47 billion in assets, with solana ETFs adding another $1.09 billion according to SoSoValue data. MB projects that this market segment will grow to at least $10 billion by the end of 2026, with $XRP and SOL expected to account for around 80% of new inflows.
The analysis considers altcoin ETFs those that do not include bitcoin or ether, and that are listed on regulated markets.
Tokenized asset market to triple
The global volume of tokenized real-world assets is expected to increase by 200%, surpassing $54 billion.
In 2025, regulatory advances across major markets enabled this growth, MB argued. The European Union permitted larger volumes of tokenized transactions on permissioned blockchains, while the U.S. recognized blockchain-based records for asset transfers.
Major institutional players, including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and WisdomTree have launched their own tokenized funds, while other institutions have started studying potential launches.
MB points to these developments as evidence that tokenization is becoming a viable path for bringing traditional assets into blockchain-based systems, improving efficiency and accessibility for both issuers and investors.
Prediction markets to expand 25x
The report highlights prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi as the fastest-growing segment in crypto. These platforms allow users to trade on the probability of future events, such as elections or sports outcomes.
MB forecasts that capital locked in these markets could reach $20 billion by the end of 2026, up from an estimated figure under $1 billion today.
The report attributes this expansion to global events like the 2026 World Cup and presidential elections in major economies, as well as the rise of prediction markets tied to entertainment and climate-related scenarios.
To MB’s analysts, these markets’ peer-to-peer model and aligned incentives between users and platforms will also contribute to their growth.
AI-powered agents to drive onchain activity
MB also expects blockchain-integrated AI agents to play a larger role in crypto ecosystems.
These agents, designed to make autonomous decisions and execute transactions, are beginning to leverage new technical standards like x402 and ERC-8004 to meet demands for transparency, traceability and micropayments.
The report estimates that the volume traded by such AI agents will exceed $1 million per day in 2026, quadrupling from current levels.
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