As Bitcoin flirts with the key psychological threshold of $100,000, derivatives traders are closely watching for signals that could mark the final leg up—and are already positioning for what may follow.
Derivatives experts Gordon Grant and Joshua Lim told BeInCrypto that Bitcoin’s move past $100,000 now reflects a long-term holding strategy, unlike the speculative trading seen when it first crossed that threshold after Trump’s election victory.
Bitcoin Nears $100K: A Different Kind of Ascent?
At the time of press, Bitcoin’s price hovers just below $98,000. As it grows, traders anxiously watch for it to surpass the $100,000 threshold. When it does, it will be the second time in crypto history that this will happen.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: CoinGecko.
According to Cryptocurrency Derivatives Trader Gordon Grant, the current move toward six figures lacks the euphoric energy of past rallies, such as the one after Trump won the US general election last November. However, that may be a good thing.
“This current bounce back feels much more of a low-key, lethargic reclamation of those highs,” Grant told BeInCrypto, referencing Bitcoin’s recovery from lows around $75,000 in early April. “The positioning rinsedown through all key moving averages… was a proper washout.”
He added that this washout, a sharp move lower that flushed out weak hands, cleared the decks for a healthier rebound. A “high-velocity bounce” followed, as Grant phrased it.
“[It] has since responsibly slowed down at the $95,000 pivot—a level at which Bitcoin has been centered, +/- 15%, for over five months now,” he added.
In Grant’s view, this sets the stage for Bitcoin to achieve a more significant and lasting climb through the $100,000 mark. This could lead its price towards the $110,000 peak it touched around the time of the US inauguration earlier this year.
However, he also pointed out several key components that must be aligned in the derivatives market for Bitcoin to launch higher.
Contained Volatility: A Key Ingredient for Bitcoin’s Next Surge
For Bitcoin to reach unprecedented levels, volatility needs to remain in check.
Volatility measures the extent and speed of Bitcoin’s price changes. A bullish scenario favors stable or gradually rising prices over wild swings.
According to Grant, traders who sell options on Bitcoin volatility now exhibit calmer behavior than during January’s price rally.
“Current complacency among vol sellers in fading the technical threshold at $100K is markedly different,” he said.
Grant added that, back in December, volatility spiked on expectations of a rapid moonshot toward $130,000–$150,000. Now, however, implied volatility has actually fallen by around 10 points during the final 10% of Bitcoin’s climb—an unusual dynamic that has punished traders holding out-of-the-money options who were betting on big price swings.
This time, the substantial loss of market optimism also contributes to the situation.
The Rise of Institutional Buyers
Market sentiment has shifted significantly since January. The excitement seen during Trump’s election has been replaced by uncertainty. According to Grant, souring macro conditions such as tariff-driven equity selloffs and growing caution among traders have contributed to this mood shift across markets.
“Whereas BTC on first launch to/through $100K was accompanied by euphoria about presidential policies… the re-approach has been marred by malaise,” Grant explained.
In short, the motivation to buy may now be driven more by fear than greed.
Joshua Lim, Global Co-Head of Markets at FalconX, agreed with this analysis, highlighting a notable shift in the primary source of Bitcoin demand.
“The dominant narrative is more around Microstrategy-type equities accumulating Bitcoin, that’s more consistent buyers than the retail swing traders,” Lim told BeInCrypto.
In other words, more speculative retail buying might have fueled earlier enthusiasm around Bitcoin’s price hitting $100,000. This time, the more consistent and significant buying is coming from large companies adopting a long-term Bitcoin holding strategy, similar to the one adopted by Michael Saylor’s Strategy.
The recent formation of 21 Capital, backed by mega companies like Tether and Softbank, further confirms this shift in motivation.
Consistent institutional buying can also sustain an increase in Bitcoin’s price over time.
Why Are Institutions Increasingly Bullish on Bitcoin?
With growing momentum from sovereign players and corporate treasuries, institutional buying may be critical in sustaining Bitcoin’s next upward trajectory.
Grant highlighted that developing countries seeking to move away from a weakening dollar and towards a more independent asset like Bitcoin could play a significant role. If this were to happen, it’d signify a potentially tectonic shift to global monetary policy.
“The Global South, tiring of wonky and inconstant dollar policies, may be truly thinking about dumping dollars for BTC,” Grant explained, clarifying, “That’s a reserve manager decision, not a spec/leverage position.”
Increased institutional adoption strengthens the idea that Bitcoin now serves as a way to reduce risk against issues pertinent to financial systems, like inflation or currency devaluation.
Meanwhile, more corporations are viewing Bitcoin as a legitimate treasury asset.
“The proliferation of SMLR, 21Cap, and many others, including NVDA deciding they need to derisk their balance sheets by rerisking on BTC—even as it approaches the top decile of all-time prices,” Grant pointed to as evidence.
Simply put, even large institutions are choosing to take on the risk of Bitcoin’s price fluctuations as a potential offset to other, potentially larger financial risks.
Despite the excitement surrounding Bitcoin’s approach to $100,000, the true anticipation centers on its continuing development as an increasingly permanent component of the financial system.
