Bitcoin’s monthly performance is under scrutiny as early 2026 data points to a possible shift in seasonal patterns, with March now positioned as a key inflection point. After consecutive declines in January and February, the latest recovery raises questions about whether the asset can avoid an extension of what would mark a prolonged losing streak.
Bitcoin March Rebound Tests Losing Trend
As of now, bitcoin is trading around $70,335 reflecting a rise of 3% seen in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, the broader crypto market is also showing slight recovery, with total market cap jumps to $2.44 trillion, up 3.06%. Well the CMC20 index rose 3.58% to $147.25, indicating improving short-term momentum.
However, sentiment remains cautious. The Fear and Greed Index is still at 34, which means the market remains in the “Fear” zone.
This gap between rising prices and cautious sentiment suggests investors are still careful and haven’t fully returned to riskier assets despite recent gains.
Geopolitics and Macro Factors Weigh on Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s recent decline appears to align with broader market pressures rather than operating independently. Since late February, when the United States and Israel began attacks on Iran, Bitcoin has fallen by approximately 20%.
The move coincided with weakness across other major digital assets, including Solana, XRP, and Cardano, indicating a wider market pullback.
Market behavior during this period shows Bitcoin has traded in line with traditional risk assets. At the same time, rising energy prices have emerged as a potential factor, increasing mining costs and adding to sentiment pressure.
Monthly Heatmap Shows Seasonal Pattern
Historical return data provides additional context for current price action. In 2026, Bitcoin posted losses of -10.17% in January and -14.94% in February, diverging from long-term averages of +2.81% and +11.11% for those months.
March has since recorded a +6.66% gain, indicating a slight recovery but not yet fully offsetting earlier declines.
Source: Coinglass
Historically, April averages +13.06%, while October and November show stronger gains of +19.92% and +41.12%. In contrast, June often marks a mid-year slowdown, averaging slightly negative returns.
Outlier events highlight volatility, including November 2013 (+449.35%) and June 2022 (-37.28%). Median returns remain more moderate, typically in single digits.
Seasonal trends suggest Bitcoin may continue to face volatility, even as March attempts to break the early-year losing pattern.
Related: Is June the Worst Month for Bitcoin? Historical Data Reveals Shocking Trends
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