Is crypto winter coming? It’s already more than set in for bitcoin treasury companies (BTCTC).
Aiming to replicate the once-in-a-generation success of Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR) and perhaps taking advantage of a U.S. regulatory regime that is willing to look the other way at questionable public offerings, a wave of crypto asset treasury companies have gone public in 2025.
The result has been massive investor losses nearly across the board. And while the plunge in the price of bitcoin BTC$106,825.12 over the past 11 days (yes, it was only Monday, Oct. 3 when BTC peaked above $126,000) can be blamed for some of the carnage, BTCTC share prices were tumbling well prior to that.
Checking a small group of BTCTCs, losses over the past three months range from “just” 38% in the case of Strategy to 94% for KindlyMD (NAKA).
BTCTCs over the past three months (Yahoo Finance)
‘Steady lads’
As his TerraUSD algorithmic stablecoin began de-pegging from the dollar in May 2022, Do Kwon famously tweeted, “Deploying more capital — steady lads.” Within days, TerraUSD, which had previously commanded a market cap of about $50 billion, was worthless.
That social media post has gone on to become a meme for the crypto community whenever things start to look questionable for the markets or any companies.
This isn’t to suggest any level of comparable shiftiness or criminality, or to predict the future BTCTCs,but some of the executive teams at these firms have recently been uber-busy on social networks in defense of their business models.
Simon Gerovich, CEO of Japan’s Metaplanet (MTPLF) — which remains higher since it adopted the BTCTC strategy in 2024, but has had a 70% share price decline over the past three months — on Friday attempted to make the case for why a shift to preferred stock issuance will deliver strong returns to shareholders.
“When bitcoin appreciates faster than the cost of capital, that difference compounds into greater bitcoin per share and the benefit accrues to the common shareholders,” he said in a post on X.
The tl;dr: Metaplanet investors will benefit if “number go up.”
KindlyMD CEO David Bailey — whose 94% share plunge over the past three months has left the stock price below $1 and in danger of being delisted by the Nasdaq — on Thursday found it necessary to deny the claims of an X poster that his company had “FTX vibes.”
“In no way is there any similarity to FTX,” said Bailey. “We’re a regulated, registered security that buys and holds bitcoin.” When the CEO of publicly traded company has to respond to a random s–tposter to say “we’re not FTX,” it’s safe to say the plot may have been lost.
Then there was Strive (ASST) CIO Ben Werkman — whose share price plunge has nearly matched that of NAKA and also faces delisting danger — attempting to explain the difficulties and a way forward.
“Now the exuberance is gone, and many companies are now in position with their balance sheets intact to be able to move to the second phase of the journey,” said Werkman in an extremely long post to X.
“Achieving scale is difficult, but now many companies have it,” he continued. “Valuations are reaching what I would consider deep value territory (just based on balance sheets alone), and these are the valuations where many investors will place their bets for the long term.”
Werkman went on to remind that many assumed Saylor’s Strategy (then MicroStrategy) was going to zero in 2022’s crypto winter. Those who faded that assumption were rewarded with mind-boggling returns. MSTR was trading at about $30 when Do Kwon made his “steady lads” post. Even after their recent decline, the shares are still at $290 — or nearly a 10-bagger over the last three and a half years.
Whatever the future may hold for the BTCTCs, one thing is for sure: the vibes are anything but positive at the moment. If any of the latecomers are going to mirror the massive success of first mover Strategy, it could require a lot more than just a rising bitcoin price.
This op-ed is part of CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Treasuries Theme Week, sponsored by Genius Group.
