Bitcoin has traded below Grand Trend’s Forecasting support level since January 2026. Since the trend’s breakdown, $BTC has experienced strong bearish pressure, falling below both long-term and short-term realized prices.
Amid this extended, weakened structure, crypto analysts have expressed greater pessimism and projected a prolonged decline, citing realized price data.
Bitcoin continues to show cracks
According to Darkfost, $BTC has held below the realized price that excludes inactive supply for two months.
The analyst noted that the realized price, after the adjustment, is approximately $72,500. These price levels now act as immediate resistance.
Looking at the previous bear cycle, Bitcoin held below this cost basis between six and 10 months. If the historical pattern repeats, $BTC could see more difficult months before reclaiming and flipping $72,500.
Typically, when market prices remain below realized prices, it means most buyers are holding at a loss. Often, an increase in the number of loss holders increases selling risk, which, if realized, results in more losses.
This is evidenced by the Short-Term Realized Price, which currently stands at $82.3k, according to Checkonchain data. This implies that recent buyers are currently sitting on significant losses, which increases the cohort’s capitulation risk.
In fact, realized losses for short-term holders have stabilized above $300 million per day, with an average of 5k $BTC sold at a loss. On the 29th of March, the STH cohort reported a $372 million loss, confirming bearishness.
Historically, continued loss realization has further weakened the market, leading to extended price decline.
Can $BTC avoid further slips?
Bitcoin has traded within a bearish structure for nearly five months and stayed below the realized price for two months, reflecting strong downside pressure.
As a result, ADV/DECL has declined below 50, dropping to 35.78, suggesting that most funds have entered a declining asset phase. This implies that sellers are largely dominating the market, and any attempted upside failed to materialize due to a lack of support.
Additionally, the EMA line hovered around 25-35, indicating stubborn weakness and further confirming the trend’s weakness. These market conditions leave $BTC exposed to potentially more losses on its price charts.
Therefore, if the market price continues to hold the realized price while STH are selling, $BTC could drop towards $62k. However, the realized price on Binance currently sits at around $60,490, providing the market with strong support.
As long as $BTC holds above this level, it will avoid further slip and give room for a reversal. But first, $BTC must reclaim $72k and flip it, then target the STH realized price of $82k to see significant gains.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin has held below $72,500, the realized price that excludes inactive supply, for two months.
- $BTC needs to hold above $60,490 to avoid further slippage and reclaim $72,500 to see any significant gains.
